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2023 Aussie Housing Bust

#housingmarket #housingcrash #heisesays
Will the Aussie housing market crash in 2023?

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  1. Sea change, tree change, bush change, work from home change are all the narratives they used to explained why houses in every city, every town across Australia went gang busters during a lockdown. It's a classic pump and dump and whoever fell for the fomo was the harvest.

  2. It all depends on the cash rate. I strongly believe the cash rate around 3.8 to 4% could easily make a big big correction such as what it did to our bro NZ. Will wait and see what happens next year.

  3. All the same rubbish, each time a downturn this rubbish comes out, hasnt happened in the past, wont happen now. Correction, yeah right, how would that happen with construction costs rising and inflation. These people who think its more affordable praying for crashes, guess what the affordability has got worse with interest rates where they are even if house prices came back abit. If a crash was to happen the highest increases in rates in 40 years would have seen impact by now….

  4. 13.8 Billion in non performing loans vs 28 billion in bank profits, vs a 60 billion increase in interest cost and 1 trillion in lost wealth from the 8.5% reduction in prices so far (core logic). Wealth creation via housing mortgages has 7:1 leverage ratio, 2 trillion of debt was supporting the 14 billion valuation of assets. Leverage on the way down will be massively destructive as all the free money from refinancing withdrawals is reversed. No bank of mum and dad to provide deposits, no capital gains to reinvest in another investment property, 60% of the covid loans falling into either negative equity or <80% LTV and needing LMI to refinance. There is probably a 6 month window to reverse rate till the point of no return is reached from fixed loan roll over and feedback from negative wealth effect into unemployment.

  5. With point #2, immigration. They (like Australians) will be borrowing 30-40% less than they could have a year earlier, so most won't be able to afford a house at current prices either. It will just add to the growing number of people that are cheering on a crash.

  6. Housing market crash?? Yet it was a record for xmas spending, so much for everyone tightening the belt 🤷‍♂️. There is plenty of wriggle room for interest rates to go either way. If Interest rates go up housing prices might come down slightly but not alot to make much difference because demand is there. The only way to solve it is we need to build a shit load of houses to bring demand down. But no one seems to want to do this. Is it too much government red tape, green tape, building cost's, maybe a combination

  7. It’s just the old shake of the tree and see what falls off. If people’s borrowing capacity drops heaps, it just means they can’t afford it anymore, dare I say a massive percentage of property is owned by people who couldn’t care less about interest rates and are waiting for all the easy fruit to drop

  8. Most people buy a house to live in, not speculate on.
    Anyone waiting for a horde of distressed sales to mop up a cheap house will likely be waiting a bloody long time.
    I know I’d work my ass off to keep my home.

  9. The more the telescreen and propoganda papers scream about a housing crash the less I believe it. Perhaps they want to scare the masses into selling when there's a 10% drop, so they can buy the dip.

  10. Florian I'm not sure what are trying to say but your analysis is looks like the Concordia trying to survive a major flooding. But do you really believe that RBA has yet finish to rise interest rates 🤣🤣🤣!! No way they have just started what we see now is just nothing! More increase it will come and if the FED keeps rising interest rate too the Australian dollar will become like the Zimbabwean dollar!! Do you realize where we are heading yet??

  11. 🤣🤣🤣🤣FLORIAN 😆😆😆COME ON DO YOU STILL BELIEVE About the non performing loans story….DO YOU HAVE ANY IDEA HOW MANY SPLIT LOANS ARE THE SAME AS THE NON-PERFORMING BUT IN THE PAPER LOOK SOOO GOOD!!

  12. No Really Florian the immigration story has been put in the table like an old penny!! Every time back again on the same story.. The only immigrant who can come and stabilise here in Australia are European Middle to high skill class but they will not interest to apply for any job because they know very well they cannot buy an house here and they will be renting forever. Similarly for American people and Singaporean.

  13. Ohhh now I get it… If the builder went bust and there is no new construction, well we could accommodate the immigrant into our house. Some spare bedroom there, some studio left there.. Some in the garage.. Some under the table 🤣🤣🤣😂🤣🤣😂

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