A Contrarian View on Ukraine/Russia, Samo Burja

How will Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shape the world for decades to come? Samo Burja is a geopolitical expert who has developed a reputation for bucking the conventional wisdom.

In this conversation he makes his predictions for the future, explaining how he believes we are misunderstanding Russia, how China is playing an economic long game, and the lessons from history in understanding what will happen next.

Bismarck Analysis:

Check out Rebel Wisdom’s deep dive newsletter on Ukraine:

Written by Rebel Wisdom


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  1. NATO is also responsible for war crimes. In Belgrade in 1999 NATO purposely targeted a children's hospital with a smart bomb that took out a generator knowing that the babies on incubators and others on life support would die. Many of the victims were infants.

  2. I love the analysis, but I don't think China and taiwan affair is accurate.
    unlike Russian, Chinese doesn't have strong organizing religion or beliefs that they would lay down thier loves for.

  3. -odd use of the word contrarian?? What happened to the idea of healthy debate that means we can share &offer intelligent differing perspectives, &even if this disagrees with media hype or tabloid bias interpretative views that often can be protective or concealing our own western governments objectives

  4. REBEL WISDOM: I'd love to come on your show and counter Samo, because I know his biases. 1) Equating federations with empires. 2) What are the functions and features of empires – in other words, what advantages and disadvantages do they have versus federations. 3) Why does a government 'have rights' independent of securing the internal rights, economy, and welfare of its citizens? I mean, we can easily make the argument that people need and must have rights. But how do we make the claim that a government has rights external to its people? And why should any such government demonstrate interests beyond those of its people? 4) It is impossible for Russia to maintain its population, economy, and borders over the coming decades. 5) Why isn't Russia following the Norweigan model instead of the Mongol, Chinese, and Saudi model? Why do we tolerate the suffering of the Russian people -most of whom are poor – when there is no material reason for it other than Putin's imperial ambitions? What is our moral obligation if we have any to the Russian people, as members of our race, religion, and civilization? 6) The only blocking factor preventing a federation across circumpolar civilization, that merges Anglo sea power, Germanic continental power, and Slavic agrarian and resource power eliminating our internal need to compete for political power at the expense of one another.

  5. Thanks, Rebel Wisdom. This is the beginning of a full conversation on Ukraine and Russia.

    A sincere conversation is the start but was never applied to all involved. Everything has to be brought to the table.

    Where must the storyline go?

    Called to love must be applied. What does move you the most?

    That is the guide to trust. This guide will evolve from that in order to see what one must-see. Change our way and flourish in diversity all together respecting each other.

    The death of children as collateral damage is already no longer acceptable at our postmodern level of consciousness. The remnant of Ego must give way to a transpersonal level of consciousness.

    The differentiation of spirit must be preserved; Ukrainian and Russia.

    Russia’s spirit must be preserved and not threatened by NATO. US power wants to bring all countries under their own model of globalisation. It is now clear that many nations do not want that.

    To fumble this intervention by the Americans is unacceptable. The killing of children in order to impose an ideology cannot be pursued any longer, at our level of spiritual integration, that is already there in a lot of the population.

    I urge the world to demand dealing with all issues at the level of spirit.

  6. The problem with Ukraine is that they say they want democracy and freedom but the situation on the ground there is that they give no rights to minorities, it is a very corrupt country and they have many extreme-right nationalists. Inna way, a reflection of the west that preaches some values but in practicality they are not present in society.

  7. A guy worth listening to. But if Placing Ukraine in NATO is an aggressive move, is he saying that any expansion of democratic governance is provocative and must be avoided?

  8. The only thing I was disappointed with was how frequently David felt the need to say he disagrees, or that the opinion is not a mainstream one / is contrarian. It felt like CYA against a future mob, trying to say "Hey, I know this subject/opinion is verboten, so it was all this other guy, not me". Stand up for yourself when the time comes, not pre-emptively.

    None of us expect you to agree with everything any of your guests say, but you rarely go that far in making sure viewers understand what just side you're on. You treat us like adults.

  9. For NATO to try and impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine is to turn over to Russian forces any weakness NATO has with regard to a hot war. Right now Russia is holding back their top tanks and air power not wanting to show NATO what they are capable of. Good generals would not listen to the stupid rhetoric of the politicians who think war is an easy matter. They don't know the first thing about war. And then we have the matter of a false-flag operation conducted by NATO which would try to accuse Russia of using chemical weapons.

  10. This Rebel Wisdom guy definitely didn't end this looking very good. He's indicative of the decay of the West, its hubris and self-righteousness.

  11. Contrarian? and yet he shares the MSM narative that Russia is trying to take over Ukraine. There's no evidence for this and Russia say they aren't. Basing your whole outlook on a single false premise undermines it under the principle of Garbage In Garbage Out. His obvious pro American bias is possibly the problem the idea that there are western values is false. There are the semblance of values within its borders but we don't apply them to our interaction with other countries. The western backed 2014 coup in Ukraine is an example of this as are the invasions of Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria and our sanctions on the people of Russia.

  12. Think on the selfinflicted sufferings of the western common people too! And the opening statements sound hypocritical reg. the suffering of the Ukrainian people, as the sufferings which happened the last 8 years caused by this western installed regime are not considered at all. Sadly biased towards the Biden position!

  13. Rebel Wisdom guy has challenges with this dispassionate analysis.

    India looks like it's going to buy Russian oil.

    And, Why would he quote David Frum of all people? Neocon

  14. What a load of utter nonsense…. Russians have logistical problems???? LOL!!!!! Utter BS. Westerners asserting this in large numbers doesn't make it true but our elites and 'intellectuals" are so corrupt that they really believe that the hot air coming out of their face-holes somehow has teh power to shape reality…. 😛

    Russians are controlling the outskirts of Ukraines capital, they have surrounded Chernigov, Sumy, Kharkov. They have ~75K of Ukraines best troops bottled up in the East and are grindig them down, while they have Azov bottled up in Mariupol and are steadily erasing these far-right nationalist criminals. They have taken (and pacified) Kherson & Meliopol, neither of which have even a hint of popular protest, and they are probing Nikolayev and building forces on its outskirts. Russias actual losses are very small compared to those of the UAF who have probably lost 20K troops and most of their armour, have no organised AD except for hidden mobile units engaging in shoot n scoot, and have no effective air force (every time they put planes in the air they get taken out).

    Only a biased fool who is well paid by our corrupt establishment could possibly think this means Russia is losing!!!!!

  15. On March 14, 2022 Ukrainian army launched a ballistic missile into residential aria to piss off Putin and kill more civilians. Zelensky is killing his own people while trying to fight with russians.

  16. His point on air superiority makes sense, but Russians have actually failed to live up to their doctrine in that aspect. Particularly their operations in the north have been cursed with incompetent anti-air. Furthermore, I'd be curious to listen to how that approach matches with laser-guided precision artillery.

  17. Burja makes some points, none of which are particularly new or "contrarian." On the other hand he prescinds from moralizing about Russian behavior, which can be a useful tool in the sense of Analytics (in the technical sense), then states that he feels compelled to moralize about the behavior of the U.S. Sauce for the goose, sir.

    As for how Donald Trump's reelection might have affected the current situation, for all his unpredictability Trump — in contrast to Obama, who drew a "red line" regarding the use of chemical weapons in Syria, then let Assad and Putin cross it with no ramifications — put several dozen cruise missiles into the Syrian airbase whence the chemical attacks originated. That act of retaliation is the kind of move that men of Putin's ilk respect and even fear.

    "Every time I'm sort of proven wrong, I'm often very happy I'm proven wrong." What a man like is gets paid for is precision in his thinking. That level of sloppy language betrays sloppy thinking.

  18. It has been theorized that anti-tank weaponry has made tank warfare obsolete, the Ukraine Russian invasion may prove this to be true? Provoking Russia could degrade the Russian Army to a point of instability similar to the Nazi Wehrmacht invasion of the Soviet Union that destroyed the German Army?

  19. I work with raw materials, globally.
    I'm not seeing other countries moving toward China. In fact, it's the opposite. I'm seeing an uptick in new business in EU, Singapore, USA & Mexican mfg requiring raw materials to make into finished goods. Many manufacturers around the world are very timid in sending new business to China. However, with China stockpiling raw material for a variety of businesses, they may lose the mfg business, but the rest of the world will have to buy from them.

    They've become the Amazon warehouse for raw material like metals, pigments, lubricants, etc.

    I think the only thing stopping them from a complete overtaking all mfg supply chains is their zero tolerance for covid.

  20. Very well done – Thank you! (I am 1/2 Ukrainian btw – Second Generation) I am grateful my grandparents passed before this whole thing started. The MSM narrative would have upset them greatly. 🌻🌻🌻👍

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