Walk The World
The latest from the ABS showed a significant fall in high-rise development in July, although houses were stronger. These are lagging indicators of property activity, and an overhang from the strong momentum earlier, when Government stimulus was juicing the market.
Therefore, we should expect more falls ahead. The state by state analysts showed considerable variation.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts
Please consider supporting our work via Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/DigitalFinanceAnalytics
Or make a one off contribution to help cover our costs via PayPal at: https://www.paypal.me/MartinDFA
We also can received bitcoins at: 13zBL1oRib9VJu8Uc9zUGNhxKDBBgUpDN1
Please share this post to help to spread the word about the state of things….
Caveat Emptor! Note: this is NOT financial or property advice!!
First?
Who wants to live in high rise with all the shoddy construction
Nice, the faster cadence of speech is much appreciated and improves the content quality overall.
I guess even the lemmings don’t want to be stuck inside a high rise if state governments decide to lock them down again.
Hmm.. Finally agreeing with you wholeheartedly Mr. North. This is why I try, oh very hard, to celebrate people like you. There is no substitute for intimate knowledge of anything and your coverage always conveys your'e up to your neck in housing industry minutiae. I find it all fascinating. The truth is punters just can't get this type of treatment anywhere else. Like you I think those who are placing their faith in a Summer Offensive will be slaughtered on the open field in a confrontation with Central Bank 'resolve'. Soldier on son.
I don't trust any data from the Government.
More valuable information on the growing symptoms of the general malaise,thanks again for your considerable time and effort Martin,another thumbs up,no need for reply.
Confidence in the construction industry is plummeting quickly. These results show consumers and businesses have started to make long term decisions based on the drop in confidence – this will set alarm bells ringing with all the finance institutions exposed to the buidling sector.
As the US markets fall, I'd expect the ASX to climb and the $AUD to gain… how would that affect the Oz housing market and pricing?
You'd expect more foreign "investment" as before with the GFC, but mostly as a safe haven to park cash. I figure it could stabilize the market prices, though.
Your a legend Martin, your analysis is pure gold. It must be hard being a modern day Cassandra.
Builders and home buyers should wait until supply issues subside.The cost of materials will hopefully reduce once China gets its act together and war in Ukraine ends. Sadly these events may take some time.
Where are we going to put the migration which is on it way
There are too many organised crime figures in Sydney building high rise buildings that fracture. The building regulator is useless. Consumers would have to take out a mortgage on a tofu dregs building.
Yes houses in my area sold before hitting the Market now have stalled, people want unrealistic prices for houses that need major work !
Labor is going to use yr super to buy them.. Whack a few solar panels on-top, ban petrol cars in the carpark, open "Crickets Cafe" next to a "Story Time" child Care Centre on ground floor & boom – sustainable development..!
Thanks
Less new houses being built, can only mean current stock will be in high demand when immigration ramps up . And what will that do to house prices?.
Perfect time to unleash mass immigration again so no one has anywhere to live.
Thanks Mr. Martin…Australians are good for whatever( anything ) may come…its all good!
Forgive me for being thick but on that chart are there not at least 12 drops of similar or greater proportion preceding back to 2011? Hardly seems seismic. Yet, at least.
Great info keep up the good work. The development side is broken. Until the supply side is fixed up it will remain broken. Unfortunately in the end the public punter and first home buyers are paying the price which is wrong!!!!!!!!!!
sorry mate….. Its not deep discounting….
50% is DEEP discounting……
All debt based bubbles are extremely fragile.
Plus in the outer suburbs their business model is based on deception. I inquired about a display home & the sales staff said it would cost 320 000. I said please don't lie from the start. You can't build this house for that price. I went next door & a very similiar house was quoted at 420 000. I said thank you for telling the truth.
The sales staff said most companies are utterly deceptive.
Great content as always.
Martin, with the falling confidence/instability in the construction industry, and reduced approvals, do you see this as potentially pushing up, or, at least stabilizing the price of existing dwellings?
Don't forget you have to weigh up the better value of older houses built using good hardwood frames and much better quality materials from the ground up and on a larger block, compared with modern 'paper mâché' houses made of pre-fab pine beam frames and rubbish materials (like living in a tent) built on smaller blocks with no yard space.
The older houses, even if a bit run down, are well worth the higher price.
Stories coming out suggesting the new NCC regulations will increase cost of new house construction will rise by $30k.
Can we find out if this a true figure or not?
Fabulous Phil…or filthy Phil…can do nothing other than shadow the fed.
If the aussies want to follow the Americans through true good times, then we tether ourselves to them for good and bad
Go it alone and the money we borrowed will cost more to pay back plus capital wanting to exit to get into americas higher rates
Nope they will break the banks…kick the can down the road and follow the fed into the liquidity squeeze..so a nice slow strangulation …either way there no escaping the sins of the past
Martin, would be great to see your research on a now significant and I think very troubling APRA driven 3% buffer on home loan approvals. Stability in the housing market is also driven by access to capital. Back before this change by APRA, banks would assess a home loan on a longer term higher/sensitised rate. Important through all cycles this rate doesnt change as it forms the foundation of approvals, viability and security within the sector and most importantly borrowers. This 3% buffer is now on the current rate, which means overapprovals and stimulus in low rate cycles and under approvals and contraction of credit in higher interest rate cycles. For instance 6 months ago that buffer rate was 5.25% on average, now its 7.00% on average and will keep going up with cash rate rises. Many borrowers approved only 6 mths ago or in last 2 years wouldnt be able to get an approval now, including refinance. This underpins the market.
Hi Martin. Could you please do a show on the homelessness situation in Australia? Maybe interview someone who has on the ground experience. I think it's crazy they are wanting to increase immigration with our housing the way it is. And also the claim that we have a labour shortage sounds bogus. Thanks
excuse me, wtf is a dwelling approval?
are you talking about people living in dwellings approving of their dwelling place?
or are you talking about government approving more construction of dwelling places?
or are you talking about government approving inspections of existing dwelling places?
don't just dive into it.