A Major Presentation On Property, Households, Finance And Stress

This is an edited version of a major presentation I gave a couple of days back to a range of Finance Professionals across Investment Banking, Hedge Funds and Analysts. I walk through our analysis and models and take questions from the audience.

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Caveat Emptor! Note: this is NOT financial or property advice!!

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  1. A lot of our inflation is also driven by the fires and floods in the last 3 years, if you think of it, a lot of people just lost their home or it’s very damaged, insurance is now huge and there’s less and less rentals avail especially in Queensland that’s going to have a huge impact on households funds.

  2. Gotta be kidding me – using Super to pay down the loan. Are people so over leverage that they are prepared to eat instant noodles for the rest of their retirement life?

  3. Yes…I th ink usually people can manage to delude themselves for quite a long time…poor performers at work also manage to move around, project to project, department to department for a long time

    I have a gut feel it’s about 3-5 years for most scenarios before they give up on their delusions or others collectively find them out.
    But, some people can last decades…usually the more extreme of those types….as it unbelievably causes more doubt on others when some have mega delusions…others will then doubt themselves and everything they know

    So your “people can manage” via credit, juggling, Hopium mixed with delusion…is a bankers blind eye to the bottom line. When they bottom line is crossed, then onto then do they recognise these people are people…imperfect beings living in an imperfect world…where maths cannot explain anything about them

  4. But what you should say Martin is…if the banks have to pay back more money now to overseas creditors…does not matter how well the people underwater can manage

  5. Credit card delinquency? This early ?
    When the min repayment is so low, so the bank can have them keeping their balance ..I think t the term ievolver (I forgotten) …then no!! Delinquency is not yet. The whole process of delinquency takes many months. This guy trying to prove a point on a minuscule timeline. He got no idea.
    Like saying if a marathon runner does not hydrate they could die, but 8kms into the race I have not seen them take a drink nor slow we all good!

  6. Increase in property prices, increase in savings…reconcile
    When banks borrow money from overseas markets for property in Australia…the savings of real estate agents and builders go up …that’s right some of the most uneducated and uncivilised people increase their savings and funnily some of the most uncouth are the loudest and like to display this wealth. So appearances are just that. An appearance…if you are a person who confuses on the loud and wanting of attention, then..that is your cross to bear. Will that cross save you, or weigh you down.
    In politics and in banks board rooms …I think I know what they believe in.

  7. Their questions are suggestive that they want you to tell the future/ forecast rather than take out from it what is best, which is gains a better understanding of how the fundamentals / boundaries and observations can help make up the future story.

    But that makes sense…each individual wants to win an award and make money…the person who organised this with you wants them to become more knowledgeable and hopefully more wise…let’s hope they go away and think more about what you present and not dismiss it because it does not match up with their incentives

  8. You know what going to be the biggest problem for australia in next 10-30 years…
    It’s the combination of this gen x and it’s easy access to finance to buy rather than save PLUS their having kids later in life. The older one gets before having children the more the bad genes from cellular degeneration is passed on.

    This generation and beyond will have failing health with no financial individual freedom and with little health insurance (tied in to the whole buy now suffer later)
    It is a cultural paradigm brought on by the financialisation of our economy…it is a slow creep and once it is discovered it will be too late. Like a patient who ignored all the signs of their chronic/terminal disease until too lste

  9. Just in my own circle of friends and relatives, I can see many people who have not positioned themselves to weather this storm. 58yo with mortgage repayments almost doubling, , 60yo just sold PPR and now renting due to rising interest rates, 27yo FHB paid $850k for first property at the peak early 2022 with parental guarantee, both households now mortgage prisoners due to neg equity in FHB property and cross collateral-isation of parents property.

  10. Hair raising the amoint of 'analytics' and prying into peoples personal finances and lives goes on. This is breaking all Privacy laws and yet they label it as a useful thing, this all goea against peoples freedoms and liberty

  11. Hi Martin, great presentation. In the UK a lot more people are now overpaying on mortgages, whether that's lump sums or an extra 200 a month for example. Are you seeing the same in Australia?

  12. Said in the nicest possible way but got to loves these people you spoke to who it would appear are fishing to snap up a bargain on people whom sadly will lose their homes. Trying to get themselves prepared on your info I say.

  13. Martin this was another brilliant presentation. You were easily able to justify your scenarios and descriptions of the state of the mortgage/ rental market with well analysed, data driven evidence. With the quality of data that you are able to pull together I am surprised that your services are not sort in a wide ranging way from the banking sector and indeed the finance media in Australia. Maybe it’s ‘too close to the bone’ for them to handle.

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