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Are We There Yet?

A remarkable division has emerged between those calling we have passed the bottom in the current stock market cycle, and those who say we are right in the middle of a bear market rally which will peter out before a further, and significantly deeper fall ahead. Why? Because on one hand recent results from many stocks have been pretty good, (though future performance is not guaranteed) while inflation some are thinking has peaked. Yet on the other hand, Central Banks are still lifting rates, and consumer confidence is tanking while home prices are easing. And inflation is still way over target. So, who will be proved more right?

In this week’s market review we will start in the US, go across to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, as well as touching on metals, oil and crypto. But before I start, a quick request.

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US stocks finished the week on solid footing, with traders assessing whether an inflation slowdown could soon make the Federal Reserve reduce the pace of its most-aggressive tightening campaign in decades and prevent a hard landing.

Defying the crowd of sceptics who dubbed the rebound a bear-market rally, short-covering or unwinding of hedges, the S&P 500 notched its fourth straight week of gains — the longest winning run since November — with big tech leading gains on Friday.

The gauge has recouped half of its losses from January through June, topping the so-called 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement level. It’s now sitting about 1.5 per cent below its 200-day average — a threshold crossed by the Russell 2000 gauge of small caps.

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Written by Walk The World

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  1. That's nothing last year we already predicted if we wanna get home loan base on 7% rate if we are comfortable with the repayment
    And carculate worse case scenario if for any reason we can't work or can't get income we need to have at least about 12months buffer for daily expenses and repayment

    That's why we are moving to WA and get home with more reasonable price and we can afford to put 20% down and small mortgage

  2. London Reuters reported that JP Morgans global head of credit markets and public finance Guy America will depart the bank viewing an internal memo stated source. If true how much impact would that have?

  3. Can you please manage the Australian economy. You have more knowledge and insight to what is going on and would change the way ALL Australians benefit and prosper!

  4. You better be growing some food because your regions (who not so long ago were independent of the ""Amalgamated Local Governments"" debt budget) can no longer can afford to feed you and are being offered cold hard cash in exchange for their land to be transformed into ""Carbon Farms"".

  5. If I'm not mistaken, this massive dearth of labour we currently have is causing huge competition for workers between employers which is driving up wages perhaps to the point of inducing a wage price spiral. And the market is again pricing in a terminal cash rate above 3.7% for mid next year which means that it does not believe that inflation is under control.

  6. Are we there yet? No, it’s September isn’t it?

    To purge a faith in a dead growth regime you have to crush the irrationally recalcitrant with an irrepressible Reality. It takes time Mr. North and clearly we are not there yet.

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