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BA.5 Latest With Paul Bork (July 12 2022)

BA.5 Latest With Paul Bork (July 12 2022)

BA.5 is reported to have created a wave of cases. The severity is said to be theoretically greater than its parent. Let’s keep an eye on it.

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Disclaimer:
This video is not intended to provide assessment, diagnosis, treatment, or medical advice; it also does not constitute provision of healthcare services. The content provided in this video is for informational and educational purposes only.
Please consult with a physician or healthcare professional regarding any medical or mental health related diagnosis or treatment. No information in this video should ever be considered as a substitute for advice from a healthcare professional.

URL list from Tuesday, Jul. 12 2022

Implications of the emergence and spread of the SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern BA.4 and BA.5 for the EU/EEA
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/news-events/implications-emergence-spread-sars-cov-2-variants-concern-ba4-and-ba5

Weekly COVID-19 country overview
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/country-overviews

What Omicron’s BA.4 and BA.5 variants mean for the pandemic
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-01730-y

Omicron subvariant BA.5 now accounts for 65% of cases in the U.S.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/omicron-ba5-subvariant-immune-evading-covid-155640198.html

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Cases – Our World in Data
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Deaths – Our World in Data
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Deaths – Our World in Data
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Deaths – Our World in Data
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths

SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1086494/Technical-Briefing-43-28.06.22.pdf

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  1. What I find odd is that South Africa vaccinated predominantly with J&J. Could it be that J&J is more protective than the PfiZer and Moderna? Maybe their internal published studies showing effectiveness increasing over time is accurate.

  2. Remember that South Africa's median age is something like 20 or 25. We have so many kids compared to old people that it's not even funny.

  3. You both are ignoring the immunity in population which makes any reinfection less severe because of memory t and b cells BUT the variant may still be intrinsically more like delta and older and unvaccinated uninflected are at higher risk

  4. Unvaccinated from USA living in Portugal for the last 6 months. My husband, unvaccinated, and I caught COVID for the first time in June of 2022. We are able to buy tests at the drug store for very little money. So I suspect that the case numbers on the charts is way off. We did not report our infection to anyone and since the vast number of cases seem to be mild I suspect no one would report this unless they were worried. We both started Ivermectin early – my husband was better in 5 days. I was better in 3. I had mild headache, body ache and low fever. After the acute symptoms passed I started to have a deep cough that resolved within two weeks. During that time I had fatigue.

  5. My 7 year old had Covid in Jan 2022. Tested LF negative at bedtime. Tested LF positive the following morning, asymptomatic.

    That evening he became slightly lethargic and felt hot & cold but no fever.

    I sat with him as he was falling asleep and he appeared to have an uncomfortable sleep. He also suddenly started having a runny nose but during the day no runny nose. The next day he was mildly fatigued, dark shadows under his eyes. Funny tummy but no diaoreah or sickness. Bit off food, I think his taste was slightly affected. He’d tell me his heart was beating faster at times, temp was a bit higher but never registered as a fever.

    He maybe coughed a couple of times here and there but no cough really and I can’t remember him saying his theist is sore?

    The worst thing was he became somewhat moody maybe he was suffering in a way he couldn’t explain like head ache but didn’t say.

    Worst thing was he had an awful sleep disturbance from a few days before testing positive and this lasted over two months. Fell asleep well but up every night around 4am unable to close his eyes (maybe something with adrenal gland or with the brain?🤷🏻‍♀️) He would wake every night and be too scared to fall asleep alone and would take a long time to get back to sleep it was awful for him and for me trying to help him (sleep deprivation was not good for his mental health).

    It affected his creativity. His routine was wake up in the morning and do some drawing on his drawing pad. He stopped being able to do that! Took weeks before that came back.

    Also his teacher noticed that a few weeks later, after Easter break, he made a big leap with his engagement at school and confidence wide and creative and educational input.

    Physically I saw no issues after he tested negative like 10-11 days in. He was doing sport as normal. But sleep and creative ability wise there was impact for a few weeks.

  6. Thank you both for all your good work. I shall try to explain some of the anomalies in the graphs presented and assist with the interpretations. I shall divide my input into several posts to make them more easily digestible.

    Portugal:

    Hospital Admission data is not available, but the number of patients in hospital is available and tracks admissions a a week or so. But generally good data.

    The spiky/smooth data is due to two opposing factors. The national daily data was collated from regional data and was not always complete when published, this caused the low amplitude spikes. Then they changed to weekly reporting resulting in a smooth curve.

  7. South Africa: Reports from ZA suggest that many of the BA.4/5 infections are reinfections and that previous infection from the Beta variant may have afforded good protection. The Beta variant was not prevalent in Portugal. The average age of the population in ZA is much less than in Portugal, making direct comparisons difficult.

  8. US: The BA.1 and BA.4/5 waves are very different. BA.1 started in the Winter and was initially confined to the Northern States and then followed the sun. The Southern and Western States got off lightly.

    With BA.4/5 the virus arrived in the Spring, there was an increase in cases in the NE, but they are falling back. Nationwide there is a slow increase in cases, but as yet no sharp rise. Now as the temperature rises and those in the Sunshine States, stay inside in A/C indoor locations, the case are beginning to rise. Nationwide this is being masked by the cases in the NE falling.

    There are some states and counties that have very low levels of vaccination or previous infection that have almost no immunity. If the virus gains a foothold in such virgin territory it could wipeout isolated communities.

    IMHO: BA.4/5 is going to be a serious threat in the US and COVID-19 is going to strike populations not yet visited.

  9. This is exactly what would be expected as endemic heard immunity thresholds are reached. It will be very hard for the political class and media to accept this reality.

  10. Just got over Covid for the second time. Had delta last November. Unvaxxed. 37 year old. High risk (Diabetes and Thyroid Cancer). It started a little over two weeks ago. Started to feel better around day 7. It started off with a very itchy throat that had me coughing a dry cough. My inner ears started to itch really bad too. I thought that it was allergies. Cleaned my house and washed my dog because of it. Then the next day I started to get a sore throat. Again I thought that it was allergies because I still had the itchy throat and ears. The only thing is that the sore throat didn’t go away at all that day so then I knew that I was getting sick. I took a covid test at home and it said positive. Then I took some garlic and sucked on it and my sore throat went away. Then I started to cough a lot, have a lot of congestion, body pains, a little bit of wheezing and inflammation.The body pains went away after about two days. I took Tylenol for that because I’m pregnant and can’t take ibuprofen. Tylenol worked great though. Was coughing very hard. Tried to take Robitussin for that but it didn’t work at all. What did work was Benadryl. Benadryl helped my coughing a lot. Gargled listerine 3 times a day and did the neti pot up to four times a day with baking soda. Now all that’s left is a little runny nose that I’m not sure if it’s pregnancy rhinitis or not and I have been coughing up phlegm. I did cough up phlegm with a little bit of blood in it on two occasions. Took about two weeks for the test to barely show positive. Have been having some weird chest pains since yesterday not sure if it’s related. Could just be anxiety though. Those were my symptoms and what I did to help them. Never got a fever but that’s not unlike me. Only time I ever got a fever that I can remember is after I got the monoclonal antibodies when I had Delta last year. Didn’t really get fatigued, only a day or two.

  11. Media says BA5 is much more infective, about as infective as measles. But the slope rate of new infections is much lower than before. Here’s one possible explanation.
    Preexisting antibodies from mRNA or Delta or Omicron. Each of these groups in the population have their own rate of infection and rate of contagion due to differences in antibodies. The groups with lower rates of infectivity in the population act as moderators of rate of infectivity for the other groups. This is analogous to a nuclear reactor with both fuel rods and moderator rods to control the chain reaction. And multiple isotopes of radioactive decay each have different half lives resulting in an overall decay curve that does not look exponential.

    mRNA
    The antibodies from mRNA are largely ineffective and even counterproductive (Antibody Dependent Enhancement). Regarding long Covid from Omicron, mRNA actually increased it. Also antibodies from mRNA drop off quickly in weeks to months.

    Delta
    The antibodies from Delta are degraded in effectiveness because they are usually for parts of the Delta virus that BA5 has mutated. It can help against BA5 in 2 ways … some of the several antibodies from acquired immunity are against parts of the virus that does not mutate. These are still largely effective. The cells creating the antibodies may give the lymph nodes a head start in finding an antibody that works.

    Omicron
    Natural acquired immunity should help more than from Delta and from mRNA because BA5 is mostly the same so antibodies are still effective. However, some cells that learned to fight the Omicron reside in particular parts of the body but not others. The acquired immunity may never have developed the lower respiratory tract immune system cells that reside strictly in that part of the body. Since BA5 tends to reach the lungs and Omicron didn’t, there may be a hole in the immune system defense.

    In general
    Disease is a progression and immune system is both preemptive (antibodies deactivating virons outside cells) and reactive (detecting and killing infected cells). Plus the progression is regional such as starting in sinus and a week later expanding into lungs. defense against disease can support any of these aspects. For example, Omicron immunity may slow down BA5’s sinus growth before it succeeds in spreading to the lungs.
    Natural immunity from a previous variant creates a unique combination of antibodies from person to person. S Africa research tested plasma from lots of people with acquired immunity to see which ones work against the current new wave (Delta). Some plasma samples were 90% effective against Delta, most were somewhat effective and 13% were totally ineffective. It depended on which particular set of antibodies were acquired.

  12. I am 68, diabetic diet controlled and have polymyalgia although im managing it without steroids. I have passed negative today from BA 5 (im in uk) I had a sore throat, very bad headache for which i took no painkillers and the sniffles. I had two bad days due the headache and it was all downhill from there. ive had it for 9 days. Its not as bad as a bad cold.

  13. You can't have it both ways.
    They said that un-vaccinated were causing mutations and that vaccination had much greater immunity, then we find BA4/5 has escaped immunity of vaccinated. So the virus has evolved in an un-vaccinated person to escape immunity in a vaccinated. REALLY?

  14. We have the study showing a 2-3X hospitalization rate for reinfection.
    BA5 is not more virulent than other omicrons.
    It’s the reinfection risk that increases ICU rates.

  15. If people encounter this Covid strain this Summer, it should help boost natural (herd) immunity for when we enter Winter in a few months time. Because of this current 0miron surge, we may see concerns for Covid this Winter being surpassed by more serious concerns for Flu. Just look at Australia. It is their Winter now and Flu is back. Might be a good idea to view this current surge, with its less pathogenetic and milder cold-like symptoms as Nature's booster shot on the run-up to Winter.

  16. fwiw… Had Delta in Nov 21… I think i caught Omicron about a week ago… had sore throat, watering eye, and headache ON ONLY ONE SIDE of my throat/face/head. Started taking zicam as soon as sore throat started, along with extra zinc and vit C…. lasted about 3 days total.

    did not confirm with test b/c it came and went so fast

  17. Yes, I am praying for Paul's brother's speedy recovery 🙏🏻 I also want to say that this is another reassuring talk. There is so much fear, and I believe the spirit of fear is from the evil one, not from God. You two have been given the grace to continue to be at peace even in serious situations. May God bless you both, and Paul's brother as well.

  18. How B.5 could be innately worse than Omicron B1 yet work out as milder (my thoughts):
    As with UK dats for hospitlalisation vs death 2020 – the approach of summer leads to dramatically reduced deaths per hospitalisation anyway (UVA and B increasimg, viral loads ..per variant.. decreasing)

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