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Births Didn’t Plummet? (Victorian Data 2021)

Recently I made a video showing data from the Australian Government indicating that births in Australia had plummeted late last year, especially in the state of Victoria. However, a viewer pointed out that these numbers don’t actually match the data being released by the Victoria State Government. I’m always happy to admit if I make a mistake, but to be fair to me, I was only quoting official government data published on their website. So in this video titled, “Births Didn’t Plummet? – Victorian Data 2021”, we’ll investigate the Victorian Government data and try to work out what the hell’s going on. Ultimately, we’re trying to uncover the truth, right? So let’s do some truth-seeking!

This is the report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics where the original data came from showing the latest birth figures. We can see that in November and December of 2021, there was a significant decline in births as compared to the last two years, with December only recording 21 births in the entire state (according to this federally-funded data).

But let’s take look at the state data. If we head over to the Victorian Government’s Births Deaths and Marriages to the page titled, “Births registered per month”, scroll down a bit and you’ll see a table that shows monthly birth registrations. For the purposes of this video, we’re interested in 2021 data. It’s in reverse chronological order, so I’ll flip it so that we can directly compare it to the federal dataset.

The first thing I notice is that the totals don’t match. The federal data states that there were around 64,800 births, but the state data says there were 76,800. If we look at the November figures, they’re way off – 3400 compared to 7000! December’s even worse – 21 births as compared to more than 8000! Actually, if you look at any of the numbers, not a single one of them matches! And it’s not even consistent. For example, in June, the federal data states there were about 6000 births, but the Victorian data states there were 7700, 1700 more! But the very next month in July where the ABS states there were 6200 births, the Victorian Government states there were almost 800 less at 5400! Sometimes there’s more, sometimes there’s less, but it’s never the same! Where are all these babies going? If I handed this in as a statistics assignment, I’d fail! I’m sure there are some really smart people working at these organisations, but they can’t even publish consistent numbers? What’s going on?

Unfortunately, the Victorian data only shows back until September of 2019, so I’d like to use Queensland data. This is the Queensland Government’s Data Portal which has data going back till 2010. This is a table of Births by Month in 2021. I’ll do as I did before and compare it with the ABS data. As you can see, I’ve filtered for Queensland data only, and here’s the side-by-side comparison. It’s the same issue. Nothing matches! Babies are going missing everywhere!

But perhaps I’m being a bit too harsh. Perhaps because of the pandemic, things went a bit awry. Communications broke down between states and the federal government. I don’t know. So let’s go back ten years to 2012. Again, I just went to the Queensland Government Data Portal and selected 2012 Births by Month. Here’s the data here. And again, I’ll compare it with the latest ABS dataset. I suppose, it’s a little bit better, but there are still discrepancies of hundreds of babies!

So which numbers do we trust? Do we trust the federally-funded ABS, or do we trust the Victorian Government? Or can’t we trust any of them? Perhaps some of you are thinking it’s no big deal. I would agree if these numbers represented say the number of families with parakeets, or the number of butterflies per square kilometre. I think we could all forgive them for not being so accurate with that sort of data. But each of these numbers represents a living, breathing human being. If there were differences of say one or two babies, perhaps we could write that off as some sort of administration error, but hundreds? Thousands?

The problem with all this data, maybe not this exact data, but data like this is used to determine where funding goes. It determines where a new school will be built, or a new hospital. But if it’s not accurate, or if there’s lots of discrepancies, can we even trust it?

Look, maybe I’m being too harsh. Maybe I’m being a bit facetious. Don’t get me wring, I’m sure it’s a hard job collecting accurate statistics. But we’re not talking differences of five or 10. Were talking thousands! And as taxpayers, is this the sort of accuracy we’re happy with, knowing that politicians are using this data to make life-changing political decisions that affect all of our lives?

So in conclusion, can we definitively say that Australian births didn’t plummet? You tell me.

MUSIC
Melancholia by Godmode

Written by Daily Insight

Comments

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  1. This data isn't used to determine where schools and hospitals go, the donations to the Liberal party have been the data they rely on for those choices for more than a decade now. Also, have you asked any of these agencies about the discrepancies? You're making the bloody video mate, you find the information first and tell us if it's so important to you.

  2. Comparing births recorded by doctors and midwives at the time of birth and births legally registered by mothers within 2 years is a headache maker. Multiple registration is how gov makes sure no baby remains undocumented.

  3. I knew govt departments didn't talk to each other but I honestly thought the data would have been corrected over time. That's usually how its done, but hats off to you and I admit I honestly underestimated the govts ineptitude.

  4. I was ready to go off about the ABS figures myself but thought I better check out the state figures. And exactly as you found, none of the figures matched, especially the Nov/ Dec "21 stats. How is it possible that the figures can be so different? What government department can we trust to give us genuine factual data?

  5. Can't trust Dan Andrews sniffing cocaine right before talking to the press release. If you go back last year in Victoria check freedom of information,or watch Avi yeminy news videos you'd see. Dan Andrews was sniffing cocaine before talking to the press he said, right, where were we to the press. How can Victorian people vote for someone on drugs to be responsible for their state?🤔 interesting don't you think?

  6. We can trust the data, but cant trust the people who are reading data. Births registered, not born – it has been that way since the beginning of data for births and marriages data. This is not breakign news or truth seekign people, its documented history. ABS states data counted for month of birth. So the difference is clear to anyone who knows anything about how the data is collected and reported.
    It isnt a matter of you making a mistake, its a matter of people believe your ignorance. People commenting they are emailing the ABS to clarify what they clearly do not understand? Stop wasting tax payers money.

  7. These same people must have been responsible for reporting the number of protesters in Victoria. MSM – There were only a small number of protesters approximately 5,000.
    Reality – 150,000 peaceful protesters

  8. On the main ABS pages, scroll down to "Methodology" Births Australia Methodology an then scroll down to Data Quality ,and it will state how the current total is now made up of some from the past 2 years.
    Yet they are claiming its a huge jump in births, when in reality its adding extra births from 2 years onto the current birth rate.

  9. I believe that the state data sets said "registered births" right? If that's the case then registration of live birth can be an entirely separate date after the birth.
    My own is about 4months after my birthdate.

  10. The liberals did the unemployment stats rigging years ago. I remember when they did it and the media never raised an eyebrow.
    But you know how it is. It looked good for the libs to see numbers drop.

  11. Great analysis mate. About time someone exposed this. Data numbers are thrown around like they are gospel when in fact they are often highly inaccurate. There is an old adage. Half of all statistics are wrong. But we dont know which half. Your video illustrates this perfectly. So on this basis can we even trust figures like unemployment or government debt. And then on top of that most stats we are shown are not pure counts but have all kinds of weights and adjustments applied in the background. Lies. Damn lies. And statistics. Can we trust any published number at all given they are almost always used for some type of political or social agenda purpose. If you have watched the wire they illustrate this when the police force and council are presenting crime stats. They call it duking the stats so that they can tell each other that crime is lower when in reality is it rising or unchanged.

  12. It's easy to explain the different figures mate . The difference is all those love children degenerates born out of free sex in the office romps of the Victorian Labor parties that were flushed down the toilets after birth . 🤣

  13. Its official, the Australian government is full of…. disinformation. We already thought that but now we know for sure. Big tech needs to call them out and shut down their accounts that are full of it.

  14. The Australian Bureau of Statistics is an independent statutory authority and stands independent of political control. The Victorian Department of Health is a government department, run from the top by a governing party politician, the Health Minister. I'll go with the ABS every time. Also, around the world, in highly vaxxed countries, there has been a crash in birth numbers. Co-incidence?

  15. why do you keep deleting my comment?:))
    if you download the excel from ABS (instead of portal data) for VIC 2021 is 76414, which is closer to VIC state figures but again different.

  16. from ABS: There is usually an interval between the occurrence and registration of a birth (referred to as a registration 'lag') and as a result, some births occurring in one year are not registered until the following year or later. This can be caused by either a delay by the parent(s) in submitting a completed form to the registry, or a delay by the registry in processing the birth. Births which occur in November and December are also likely to be registered in the following year.

    Of the 309,996 births registered in 2021, 88.2% (273,301) occurred in 2021, while 9.0% occurred in 2020 (27,751) and the remainder occurred in 2019 or earlier years.

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