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Excess mortality data

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Paper in the Lancet
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02796-3/fulltext

Data set
http://ghdx.healthdata.org/record/ihme-data/covid_19_excess_mortality

Health metrics and evaluation
https://www.healthdata.org

Jan 1, 2020, to Dec 31, 2021

Estimate excess mortality from the COVID-19 pandemic,

in 191 countries and territories,

including 31 locations in low-income and middle-income countries

12 states in India

Methods

Data collected for pandemic period and past 11 years

All-cause mortality reports

Excess mortality over time was calculated as observed mortality minus expected mortality

Excess mortality = observed mortality -expected mortality

Accounting for late registration,

Six models were used to estimate expected mortality

(statistical model for low data areas)

Findings, as measured by excess mortality

Reported worldwide COVID-19 deaths = 5·94 million,

We estimate 18·2 million

(17·1–19·6 million)

Global all-age rate of excess mortality due to the pandemic, 120·3 deaths per 100 000 of the population

Excess mortality rate exceeded 300 deaths per 100 000 of the population in 21 countries

Cumulative excess deaths due to COVID-19

India, 4·07 million

USA, 1·13 million

Russia, 1·07 million

Mexico, 798, 000

Brazil, 792, 000

Indonesia, 736, 000

Pakistan, 664, 000

Bangladesh, 413, 000

Peru, 349, 000

South Africa, 302, 000

Iran, 274, 000

Egypt, 265, 000

Italy, 259, 000

Australia – 18,100

NZ, – 827

Canada, 43,700

UK, 169,000

Excess mortality highest

Russia, 374·6 deaths per 100 000

Mexico, 433.6 per 100 000

Brazil, 186·9 per 100 000

USA, 179·3 per 100 000

UK, 126.8 per 100 000

Canada, 60.5 per 100 000

Australia, – 32.9 per 100 000

NZ, – 9.3 per 100 000

Ratio of excess mortality rate to reported COVID-19 mortality

A measurement of undercounting the true mortality impact of the pandemic

In high-income North America, the ratios were comparatively low

Morocco, 10

Egypt, 12·19

Sudan, 25·12

Afghanistan, 26·06

Yemen, 33·04

Canada, 1.44

US, 1.37

UK, 0.97

Interpretation

The full impact of the pandemic has been much greater than what is indicated by reported deaths due to COVID-19 alone.

Further research is warranted

To distinguish excess mortality that was directly caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection,

and the changes in causes of death as an indirect consequence of the pandemic.

Written by Dr. John Campbell

Hello Everyone,My name is John Campbell and I am a retired Nurse Teacher and A and E nurse based in England. I also do some teaching in Asia and Africa when time permits. These videos are to help students to learn the background to all forms of health care. My PhD focused on the development of open learning resources for nurses nationally and internationally.

Comments

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  1. I am an eledrly man. I have no trust in our public health people. The damage they inflicted on my children and grand children was horrific just so they could extend my life by a few years. I am quite happy to lay down my life if it will protect my offspring.

  2. Modeling!! I know that covid was put onto death certificates, even before tests, if it looked like covid it was, but a cold didn't kill a person with terminal cancer, but they fooled everyone to think that way, with/of! The tests have never been able to diagnose anyway, so that's a big fat con. When people find out the real truth of the whole thing, they will be shocked first and then very angry, rightly so, because this neglect of our world's health can never happen again. This video doesn't say how many excess suicide, but was covid put on their death certificate. Crimes against humanity have happened and they shouldn't go unpunished. I never knew anyone who died of covid, but I known people suddenly getting sick because of the jab, benign tumors being activated and heart attacks afters the booster shot. So sorry for everyone's loss, the people need to know the truth.

  3. What have we learned from this pandemic? Don't trust the politicians. We are on our own. Prepare to protect yourself. Freedom works better than central government force. Trust the people enough to tell them the truth about the real medical statistics and the science, and not to lie to them.

  4. It's also important to bear in mind the statistics from the FOI request that showed actual deaths from Cvd 17,000 not 154,000. Tge worldometer stats,shows 6 million dead from Cvd BUT when you look at the UK numbers on that site, it shows 154,000. So, if this scenario has been replicated across the world, and we know it has, what IS the real death rate?

  5. it’s on the people that pushed interventions to prove that they improved the outcome. We should not assume they helped, we should assume they caused more harm than good. This is the pre-cautionary principle. Good luck proving they worked, because in complex systems, you really never can.

  6. It is well known that there was a massive increese in suisids, people with cornice illnesses could not get to hospitals to get the needed tretement as c-18 hysteria locked them out. and the massive increase in heart attack and strokes' cince the vax roll out, much of this is collateral damage

  7. Jon Ioannidis and Jay Bhattacharya both are on record saying there is high likelihood of over-counting in Western Europe and North America from their models. They also report undercounting in areas like Africa and Russia. I’m happy to point you to source material where they say this. I think they are very qualified to make this calculation and present it with a high degree of confidence.

  8. You know what dr John Campbell ? I really hate how scientific & medical community has handled this for 2 years. Even yourself have been initially skeptical in initial covid phases regarding a lot of information: starting from treatment with anti virals like iver merctin, giving stupid suggestions to the state to keep the people in house and so on…
    Regarding if it came from a lab ? You don't think ? You don't have strong believes and so on. Wtf !? is wrong with you, where is your moral. You are using language that protects yourself and the medical & scientific community of any culpability. It came from a lab, it does not matter the objective. It was created by humans. Stop giving excuses. If it looks and smells like a lie 99% it is a lie. Let's start from the hypothesis that it is not a lie (covid was created by humans) as we were told by different higher persons and let's investigate and draw conclussions. Let's round the possible persons who had responsibility and let them pay for these. We should not forget and pass on. This will repeat itself!
    Covid crisis showed us how stupid you all are in making critical decisions. Stupid people in high position who don't open their mouth and don't want to change the narative. All your diplomas are null in the face of danger. Even now we are confronting with possible ww3 and the same stupid people are telling us don't worry.

  9. I've enjoyed every video I've watched. Very informative, including this one. I'm a little surprised of you playing down the engineering of This Cov£id 19. This outbreak started right by a lab that researches corona viruses . The fact that China locked down Wuhan except all international flights . Thousands were allowed to travel around the world from there . Then systematically around the earth were affected by this . This is not a conspiracy, these are facts that make it obvious this was planned to eradicate older people and those with underlying health problems.I personally don't know anyone who died of Cov£d , however I know 6 people. Who have died immediately after a vaccine. Thank God most of the population were given the placebo, so the could catch it and have natural immunity

  10. Watched until the end. I can’t help but feel like this is the video news clip that starts the movie “I am Legend”

    Sad how no one wants to measure the loss of functional life. I was a life insurance agent for 13 years. Is an epidemic that has a life expectancy greater than the p-value really worth all this collateral damage? How many you lives have and will pay the price so the old can have an extra few years of suffering…

  11. Let’s be real, modeled numbers have been terribly flawed this entire pandemic. Over counting documented and supported by many top experts. A model that uses a .05 IFR instead of .02 IFR will have drastically different estimated figures.

    Quite obvious also that quarantines and shutdowns and missed healthcare and mental illness and drug addiction and cardio vascular disease have all also been at all time highs. Modeling is not the same as having the real numbers! These studies are very prone to mistakes and biases in my opinion.

  12. Re highest death rate per 100,000 at 7:45 in video. If you are going to claim that Russia is highest in this parameter then the numbers you've presented have a typographical error.

    That is, you show first Russia at 374.6 per 100k and Mexico second at 433.6. It appears Mexico should be 333.6 since re-calculation with the excess death data you show earlier (5:40), and wikipedia population data, the excess deaths per 100k, per year are:
    Russia 369, Mexico 317.

  13. Taiwan also negative, they wear masks, ensure population wide mask distribution, had excellent isolation system for travelers. They didn't even have to close schools.

  14. Do you have any data for other Middle East countries: UAE, KSA and Bahrain for example? Very little is commented upon regarding the accuracy of the numbers reported. UAE in particular remained very open to inbound tourists as well as hosting EXPO but on the face of it managed things remarkably well.

  15. No chance they could have investigated the maltreatment as a cause of the deaths? Front line doctors in the USA had an almost zero death rate by treating with Ivermectin and other inexpensive methods. A meta of your broadcasts would likely show it was a complete failure for healthcare and a complete success for Pharma finances.

  16. The pandemic seems to be a tool of War, dare I say it?
    Interesting, under reporting for the higher income families, or maybe information for higher classes, is always better due to status?
    As You well know John, the data is made especially hard to define.
    Never known an organisation like them!
    Rarely does a Dr speak out, and for that, the public should be very grateful.
    Keep up the good work sir! 😉

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