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Good fortune with omicron

South Africa, as of 4th December, R = 2.5

https://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-index/disease-index-covid-19/surveillance-reports/covid-19-special-reports/the-initial-and-daily-covid-19-effective-reproductive-number-in-south-africa/

https://www.nicd.ac.za
https://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-index/disease-index-covid-19/surveillance-reports/

https://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-index/disease-index-covid-19/surveillance-reports/weekly-epidemiological-brief/

https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2021-12-08-covid-19-symptoms-now-are-far-milder-than-in-the-first-three-waves-says-netcare-ceo/

The National Institute for Communicable Diseases

The percentage of positive tests nationally:

24.9% (16.4%) higher than last week

Gauteng, 35%

Limpopo, 32.7%

Mpumalanga, 26.9%

North West, 26.0%

Free State, Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal, 10% to 15%

Eastern Cape and Northern Cape, less than 10%

Dr Richard Friedland, chief executive officer Netcare

https://www.netcare.co.za

Omicron variant data, Covid-19 symptoms now are far milder than the first three waves

Having personally seen many of our patients across our Gauteng hospitals,

their symptoms are far milder than anything we experienced during the first three waves

Approximately 90% of Covid-19 patients currently in our hospitals require no form of oxygen therapy,

and are considered incidental cases.

If this trend continues, it would appear that, with a few exceptions of those requiring tertiary care,

the fourth wave can be adequately treated at a primary care level

In the first three waves

Netcare, across 49 acute-care hospitals

Treated 126,000 Covid-19 patients,

of whom,

44% required admission

26% required DC or ICU

Significantly, all Covid-19 patients admitted were sick and required some form of oxygen therapy.

The high admission rate, as well as the high percentage of patients requiring ICU or high care is indicative of the severity of cases during the first three waves

Now

337 Covid-19 positive patients admitted

(72% of these patients are in the Gauteng area and 18% in KwaZulu-Natal)

Of these 337,

Approximately 10% are on some form of oxygenation

versus 100% in the first three waves

Eight of 337 (2%) are being ventilated of these,

two are primary trauma cases

During the first three waves

When the overall community positivity rate breached 26% across South Africa

First wave admissions
2,000

Second wave admissions
2,500

Third wave admissions
3,000

Fourth (omicron) wave admissions
337

Of the patients admitted to Netcare hospitals and facilities since 15 November

75% not vaccinated

Seven deaths in Netcare facilities due to Covid-19 complications

Age distribution of patients

Covid-19 patients admitted since 15 November are on average younger than those seen during the first three waves,

71% being 50 years

Average age of 38.5 years

Patients presentations

Mild to moderate flu-like symptoms

Blocked or runny nose

Headache

Scratchy or sore throat

It is our considered view at this early stage that,
should this trend continue,

Covid-19 may be effectively managed at a primary care level,

with the exception of certain cases requiring admission to tertiary facilities

Dr Fareed Abdullah, Office of Aids and TB Research, SA Medical Research Council

80% of admissions below the age of 50 years,

throughout the Gauteng province in the last two weeks

The best indicator of disease severity is measured by the in-hospital death rate.

There were 10 deaths in the in the past two weeks (cohort of 166)

making up 6.6% of the 166 admissions

(23% for all previous waves)

Four deaths, aged 26-36

Five deaths, aged over 60

There were no Covid-19-related deaths among 34 admissions in the paediatric Covid wards over the last two weeks

Omicron variant could act as a natural vaccine

Professor Eleanor Riley, immunology and infectious diseases, University of Edinburgh

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/covid-news-booster-cases-vaccine-passport-coronavirus-omicron2/

Omicron variant could act as a natural vaccine in the unvaccinated

Britons are very likely to contract the variant in the next couple of weeks

Everybody’s very likely to experience it in the next few weeks.

If it is milder, and we know infection induces an immune response,

it is possible that this could act as a natural vaccine,
getting to those people who have so far been unwilling to be vaccinated

But I think we have to exercise a huge degree of caution with that,

because there’s a huge ‘if’ about this ‘is it milder?’

And I think it’s very dangerous to compare data from South Africa to the UK.

In the South African population there’s been so many waves of infection they’ve gone through,

lots of immunity and a much younger population

Advised people to act on the basis that anybody they come into contact with could have coronavirus

Written by Dr. John Campbell

Hello Everyone,My name is John Campbell and I am a retired Nurse Teacher and A and E nurse based in England. I also do some teaching in Asia and Africa when time permits. These videos are to help students to learn the background to all forms of health care. My PhD focused on the development of open learning resources for nurses nationally and internationally.

Comments

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  1. But it's going to be a "Tidal wave" in Britain! Ha ha…. I bet if you tested everyone in hospital for the last twenty years with the same fraudulent PCR test, you'd probably come up with exactly the same "incidental" figures…

  2. What a difference in comparison with the public broadcast from Boris today. Dr John, I would trust you any day over the fear mongering style of our political leadership. Thank you, thank you for your good reason, logic and counsel. We need you as Minister for Health, at the very least.! You’re a gem, a blessing and the very best prescription for our collective sanity too.

  3. how covid is by in large treated in the us is a borderline human rights violation. your sick with covid + test. GO HOME AND TAKE TYLENOL. when it's time to die go to the hospital and get your aveoli blown out with a ventilator. No talk naso pharyngeal wash, Gargling, no talk of nutraceuticals.They are already talking about a 4th booster for omicron. Bullshit!

  4. it will all end when they stop mass vaccinations, Boris has announced a massive push on vaccines today. In your own video, you say the vaccines reduce the capability of the immune system with negative protection in the first 2 weeks. Seems like a last-ditch effort to make it as deadly as possible to keep the dictatorship going. From this video, we don't need the vaccines just let it run through the population.

  5. Anyone else wonder why and how actual medical experts are risking their careers calling for the COMPLETE HALT OF VACCINATION and this nurse teacher is getting a big tech platform?

    Yeah that's right. This guy may be really decent but he is totally harmless to the agenda. You will not get a world worth living in just listening to this guy. Do not put all your eggs in this basket. There are actual experts around.

  6. 'Act as a natural vaccine' is the most idiotic statement I've heard for a while. It will prompt an immune response and you'll aquire natural immunity. End of. Why are we referring to a virus as a natural vaccine?

  7. I just quit twitter. Long story but really do believe they are working with some kind of agenda; always gave them benefit of doubt before. I have always been liberal and yet the thing that bothers me is that they refuse to take action on some hideous posting by a liberal, who is attacking a right wing guy. Like I said it's a long story but at the same time they are restricting me right and left for what seem to me to be far less grievous things. They seemed to take pleasure in just telling me that the posts/account I reported did not violate twitter rules. For one thing the poster used tons of profanity and disguised it just with a few asterisks. But it is the ugliness, the spirit of the posts that really bothered me (but the profanity was part of it) Anyway I thought I had a pretty good feel for what twitter would accept or not accept, but no longer. Something profound has changed. And I can't have anything to do with them any more. Thx.

  8. Did the degree of sickness , for want of a better word, have a bearing on the possibility of it turning to long covid in the Delta….will it also have same effect for the Omicron?

  9. – 3rd Dec my daughter come home from university 3rd Dec I hugged her and my wife and I spent around 20 mins with her and she sat with her brother for around 90mins
    – She tested positive for covid 4th Dec via lateral flow and 5th Dec via PCR (confirmed new variant)
    – I've had 3 jabs
    – 2 or 3 Lateral flows a day since 4th Dec all negative
    – 6th Dec following track & trace advice I had a PCR which was positive.
    – My wife 2 x jabs and 17 year old son 1 x jab both negative
    – Apart from feeling slightly under the weather a couple of mornings I've had no symptoms. 
    – 8th Dec following track and trace instruction for new variant  my wife and I  completed a second PCR and both come back negative. 

    Either my first PCR was a false positive, (which I understand is very unlikely) omicron symptoms are very mild or having 3 jabs works.

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