Hang On To Your Hats – Its About To Get Interesting…!

A September economic update, which highlights why things are going to get interesting in the weeks ahead. Central banks have a headache, as inflation still burns stubbornly hot, but financial stability issues are also emerging, so they have some tricky decisions to make.

And yet the FED has said a property price correction, and stock market correction would be “helpful” in the fight, to say nothing of a rise in unemployment.

Whether we hit a recession or not, in the short-term rates are going higher. This will have significant knock-on effects. Home prices will slide further, and markets will drop again – as they often do in October.

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  1. From another point of view it appears that all these policies of the worlds reserve banks have been uniquely tailored to protect and enhance the wealth of the baby boomer generation at the expense of generation x etc, the inflation in wages that we are seeing and the interest rate hikes that are helping to drive down prices of houses and increase the wages for zoomers/millimiuns and even for once generation x, but now with the specific quantitive easy that is tailored to boomers wealth is again screwing the generations born after them . So they won’t be able to afford to have children without stressing them financially,and hence our reliance on bringing in labour from
    Overseas at the expense of our “culture “ which probably does need to change as we certainly don’t seem to be having a culture that wants to have kids and allow them to have children (With the same degree of stress free worry that the boomers enjoyed )That’s my observation it’s not a criticism

  2. Just saw the news that OPEC is considering cutting output for 1 million per day, if that does happen, oil price increase will be back, US inflation will stay high for foreseeable future.

  3. @15:33 reminds me when you we're predicting -5, -20, -35% housing crash for covid, totally wrong and crushed anyone taking your information on board. Corelogic data was the correct information at the time.

  4. Foot on the accelerator and brake simultaneously was called a "linelock" in my younger days – car goes nowhere, lots of wheel spin and tyre smoke. Hold it too long and engine, driveline, or tyres go BANG. Metaphoric gold for the current situation perhaps? Thanks heaps Martin – you're gold mate.

  5. Your worst case scenario for house prices over 12 months is extraordinarily mild. I believe that far more damage could be done over a 12 month period than that. A 30% reduction in borrowing capacity at the same time as inflation is still eroding real purchasing power by 6 – 9% is nothing to sneeze at.

  6. Well Martin. I really don’t know what to believe. The building industry in New Zealand is on fire, can’t get staff in the ones you do get you have to pay too much for. It’s still on employers nightmare.

  7. High US$ is not the strength of the US housing, stock or industrial markets but because big investors in other countries are running to a currency that is RELATIVELY strong. The other one is the rouble … because Russia IS strong … but ANZ can't, won't, buy me roubles? 🤓🇦🇺

  8. … And anyone who thinks inflation is only 6.2% is not in Australia. PS Martin … volatile items costs can statistically be accounted for … it suits the RBA to be ignorant … ignoranter😳

  9. Hello Martin. Thank you for your updates👍 You mentioned a ‘gilt’ sale in October. Can you clarify please? I take it that refers to a large scale sale of UK gov. bonds. Is it ‘gilt’?

  10. Great analysis as always 👍 No central bank is going to “choose” hyperinflation…this is what these guys are there for and they will crush inflation with rate hikes until it is crushed. The crypto crowd, gold bugs and other morons will argue they don’t have the gumption….but they will be wrong. Big market crash coming once they get the message. What this means for the Aussie housing market is where it gets really interesting. Popcorn time 🍿

  11. Are those house and unit fall numbers in nominal terms? Ie. Once you allow for 3 years worth of inflation (2022-25) the REAL wealth destruction is even worse?

  12. didnt the arb run insolvent last week and printed off 37billion to not be insolvent?where the hell do i get my money printer from.
    what total b.s
    time to riot but no one will in australia .

  13. Ray Dalio, a few months ago, suggested that the US FED was likely to be technically insolvent, BUT that it didn't matter. One part of the explanation for this is that the FRD does not mark-to-market its bond holdings.

  14. Every financial goal requires patience, dedication and consistent spirit knowing that investment is currently the most lucrative business in the world. both NFT, real estate, Gold and Crypto is positively changing people's lives. I stopped panicking about the market the very moment I started working with Archie Wyatt last year, his confidence and skills is on a maximum level on (Bitcoin trading)..

  15. Rates have had to shoot to the moon super fast since the FED and RBA were so negligent in keeping them so low for so long. Now instead of gradually raising them slowly over a few years and giving people time to adjust they are going to rip the guts out of households overnight. More fine work work from the “experts”.

  16. Martin You are Hanging ON to a Hat. I guess that's because too many people still think we are immune to what's going on overseas. Take note of the number of non believers in the comments below. It's getting closer and closer to a recession. I JUST CAN'T WAIT TO FEBUARY 2023 WHEN THE SHIT WILL HIT THE FAN BIG TIME. Interest rates over 7% and maybe the idiots will start heading for the exists. I am sure thousands will get crushed but just watch the Government pull another feather out of its Ass and try and save the Ponzi scheme ( not a system ) yet again.

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