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Inflation Ain’t No Snowflake!

Stocks have enjoyed an upbeat start to the year on hopes that the Fed will abandon its hawkish rhetoric and pilot the economy to a soft landing. Traders are betting that the Fed will raise its benchmark rate to a peak of 5.1% in July, largely in line with the forecasts of Fed officials.

Many in the markets are spinning a yarn about how the inflation rate will drift lower – bobbing on the wind like a snowflake, melting away to a nice round 2%. Well, I have to tell you, I think that snowflake is in the eye of a hurricane – literally the calm before the storm. This story of a quiet adjustment is a best misleading, at worse an opportunity for others to transfer risk to the unsuspecting and make money off their backs.

A parallel to those property market “experts” who keep saying the property market is about to recover and you should buy now.

All this is fiction, as the macroeconomic backcloth points to something else, and much more destructive – soon the hurricane will be in full force. It is likely that the US economy will be in recession by the second half of 2023. This flips upside down the widely held belief that the 1st half of this year would be weak, but the second half would see a strong rebound in stocks and GDP. With the US there, other economies including Australia will get caught in the downdraft.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

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  1. 'One cause for optimism is the bank's confidence that global inflation has peaked and is on the way down, echoing recent comments by US central bank boss Jerome Powell.'

    'The key uncertainty for the RBA is how quickly those global trends will play out locally, given that Australia was around half a year behind when inflation was on the way up, although there appears to be no good reason why it should lag the rest of the world on price rises easing.' ABC NEWS.

  2. As usual , I feel quite strongly that this episode must be seriously considered , with a bit of peaceful quiet time and , much observation / deep thought/ comparison to comments and forecasts etc.from other media and financial services , especially banks . With Respect , From Robert Of Australia 🇦🇺.

  3. The media talks as if the inflation problem magically vanishes once it has peaked! Even if inflation has peaked it is still there and substantially high (5% or higher after the peak) and will be for a long time. Even if inflation goes back down to target, prices and real incomes are not going to return to where they were before inflation.

  4. The hurricane will be war.
    We will not have enough people to fill the jobs required by the war machine geared up.
    And the artificial GDP of war will rebound the markets.

    Good luck to all and God speed.

  5. I don't think Aus is going to have much of an issue. We are dumb and lucky despite our best efforts. Populatiom too small to fail, resources too big to fail

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