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International omicron doubling

Link for free download of John’s two text books, http://159.69.48.3/

Campbell’s Pathophysiology Notes, Amazon orders for the UK, https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B012HWC8SU/ref=cm_sw_em_r_mt_dp_AYC5Q7G3H2B3T4BCHQY0
Campbell’s Physiology Notes
https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/0955379725/ref=cm_sw_em_r_mt_dp_K0MXMAP26Y77TY4J90FB
the disease is mild in almost all of the cases seen so far,

Dr Rochelle Walensky, CDC

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/09/cdc-chief-omicron-mild-early-data-us-spread-variant

75% of US cases vaccinated

Scotland, ‘tsunami’ of Omicron

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10295867/Omicron-infecting-4-000-BRITONS-day.html

Families in Scotland, to self-isolate for 10 days if one member tests positive,

regardless of their vaccination status and even if they initially get a negative PCR test

UK Government working on a ‘Plan C’

UK, Health Security Agency

https://twitter.com/UKHSA/status/1468951053903142913?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/covid-19-variants-identified-in-the-uk

Omicron is displaying a significant growth advantage over Delta,

likely to outcompete Delta in the UK and become the dominant variant.

If the growth rate and doubling time continue,

at least 50% of coronavirus (COVID-19) cases to be caused by Omicron variant by mid-December

One million by end of December

1% = 10,000

Omicron displays a reduction in protection offered by having had a previous infection or vaccination.

There is insufficient data to make any assessment of protection against severe disease,

or to assess the severity of illness caused by Omicron.

Further studies are underway in the UK and abroad.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1039644/Omicron_SGTF_case_update_FINAL.pdf

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefings

Graph refs

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

SA. Live data, hospital patients who have tested positive

https://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-index/disease-index-covid-19/surveillance-reports/daily-hospital-surveillance-datcov-report/

South Africa references

https://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-index/disease-index-covid-19/sars-cov-2-genomic-surveillance-update/

Weekly deaths in SA

https://www.samrc.ac.za/reports/report-weekly-deaths-south-africa

Variants in SA

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-africa/

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sage-98-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-7-december-2021/sage-98-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-7-december-2021

Hospital admissions from Omicron should be expected to follow soon (high confidence).

Though there remain some important uncertainties,

Early verbal reports indicate that hospitalisations due to Omicron are now increasing in South Africa.

The doubling time for new Omicron infections is currently around 3 days in England

It is unlikely to be any slower than a 5-day doubling time (high confidence)

Household studies show higher secondary attack rates (high confidence).

Why is omicron more transmissible?

Combinations of transmissibility and immune escape

Some early indications from South Africa suggest less severe disease in those hospitalised

A modest reduction in severity would not avert high numbers of hospitalisations if growth rates remained very high.

One thousand per day be end of month

The peak is highly likely to be higher than 1,000 to 2,000 Omicron hospital admissions per day without intervention

For it to be below this level there would need to be only a small degree of immune escape and very high protection from boosters against Omicron

With very rapid doubling times a large wave could occur leading to synchronous absences from work.

With lags of the order of two or more weeks,

and doubling times of the order of three days,

it is likely that, once hospitalisations begin to increase at a rate similar to that of cases,

four doublings (a 16-fold increase) or more could already be “in the system”

A greater role for airborne transmission
Ventilation, well-fitting masks and distancing or reduced density of people in indoor environments may be even more important.

Michael

In your talk about the Oslo party you embrace another wrong inference that many people like to believe,

that claims that viruses tend to become less lethal because “not killing their host” keeps the viruses in the host alive too

and enables the host to keep infecting, making the virus more contagious.

This claim may be contested even in the general case,

but it’s certainly wrong for SARS-COV 2 since as you pointed out many times –

the death of the victim almost always happens after he is no longer infectious

and this means that prolonging the life of the victim does not prolong the period of infectivity.

Written by Dr. John Campbell

Hello Everyone,My name is John Campbell and I am a retired Nurse Teacher and A and E nurse based in England. I also do some teaching in Asia and Africa when time permits. These videos are to help students to learn the background to all forms of health care. My PhD focused on the development of open learning resources for nurses nationally and internationally.

Comments

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  1. My guess is that if the Omicron results in mostly mild prognosis, then it should be used as a natural vax and hopefully have everyone infected with it.? Just a lay man asking….

  2. Dr Campbell, one question for you? Can you even tolerate the fact that something else may be connected with all of this, ever thought you might be being lied too? Regards.

  3. Why are the illuminati and old guys who I should not know about are scared of covid and are only the person powerful enough to shut down their earth. Sighs I'm like a native american i wanna take back my land. I'm not vaccinated and i been doing uber lyft for last 2 years str8 .. no covid is gonna stop me from going on this battle field. No house of my own to stay home at .

  4. It’s not a matter that the viruses “think” is just that if a virus variant is very pathogenic the host is not going to move around that much and hence it spreads less. This we humans say that it is not in the best interest of the virus to evolve towards more pathogenic versions.

  5. not convinced how 'scientific' or logical that last point of Michael's was, John; surely if the virus keeps killing hosts (and if this is how all viruses evolved, to kill more hosts), then a virus, and perhaps viruses more generally as a class of pathogens, would quickly serve to wipe out their host species?

    or: a virus cannot be endemic in an extinct species

  6. Thank you again, Dr. Campbell, for presenting facts and information, as well as corrections, with a small ego. I have learnt so much from you. If you had charged even £1 for your books, you would be getting rich now, but once again you choose to be generous. Much appreciation. Be well, Sally 🌹

  7. I disagree about someone dying after infection not affecting selection pressure. People dying will still encourage stronger preventative measures by the living, and the later death of the host removes them as a potential re-infection vector. This is still an inefficient and more hostile state of affairs for the virus.

  8. Yes, I've said the same thing before. SARS-Cov-2 has little incentive to become more deadly. We've just been lucky with omicron. There have been more virulent endemic viruses in the past such as polio and HIV. Even if omicron is more dangerous than the preliminary data from South Africa suggests, less people will get sick, once everyone has had it and children generally don't get ill. The most likely outcome is it'll be a mild disease everyone gets as a child, then is occasionally reinfected several times in their life, resulting in asymptomatic or very mild disease.

  9. I want you to know how much I appreciate your channel. I can't trust the news channels, so it is good to have someplace to come find out what the research and data is truly revealing!

  10. I'm confused! Early in the talk you present the current evidence that inoculation status and previous infection do not prevent infection with Omicron – then later you say we'll all be exposed to Omicron and that that is a good thing because it will give us protection from future mutations/variants. Surely these statements are inconsistent and contradictory?

    As I've commented before, it would be so much easier if we were using the definitions for progression of infectious diseases I learned 40+ years ago: anyone, whether vaccinated or recovered, can become a carrier if exposed to a virus load. Carriers can transmit the virus to others (so everyone should wear masks and socially distance to reduce risk of transmission), some carriers will become infected. Vaccination status, previous infection and co-morbidity factors will influence outcomes for those who progress to infection (so everyone, and particularly those in vulnerable groups, should get vaccines and boosters to reduces severity of symptoms, need for hospitalisation and mortality).

    In line with WHO statements, I wish your messages more clearly stated that: reducing viral load and exposure (masks, social distancing, ventilation, avoiding unventilated offices and public transport) reduces transmission and risk of becoming a carrier. If a carrier progresses to infection then the prognosis depends on the strength of acquired immunity either from recovery from previous infection or vaccination (so everyone should take up the offer of (FREE!) vaccination and, likely, regular on-going 'boosters').

  11. What is the normal hospitalization rate for the flu. Your side of the world going into winter now so bound to have lots of flu as well. In south Africa a large percent of those in hospital with Omicron had already been admitted for something else and it was routine testing that found the virus. Get your vitamin d levels over 125nmol. It's very protective and the governments around the world are negligent in not advising this as well as losing weight etc.

  12. No , no , no …let's take those infections and hospitalisation numbers with a pinch of salt . Who's doing the counting ? In view of sooo many other misinformations and disinformations l would like independent branches including lay people , the public , you and me check the veracity of those alleged numbers in person on the ground otherwise all this is sheer anecdotal , heresy information.

  13. A very wise man once said that a haughty spirit, or arrogance, comes before a fall and pride before destruction. The greater the exposure you have got, the greater has become your haughty spirit and sarcasm. No matter how wrong people are, or how often, you have not been perfect yourself. You get to 'preach to the choir' and be wrong relatively quietly, Prof Fergusson and SAGE do not. You are not a medical doctor nor a scientist; your PhD is not even in nursing practice; have a little humility and be a little kinder to people who are trying to do a good job, but are wrong. After all, you are not above being wrong yourself. I am sure you would not appreciate the treatment you dole out to others.

  14. Vaccinated or not ? Its having the anti bodies that makes you immune or not as likely to be infected or transmitt covid right ? . Its the anti bodies. Yeah? . . . So . . .IF you'd had covid and been all OK ? You've got anti bodies right ? some doctors have even said having natural immunity gives stronger anti bodies than the vaccine can provide . Its been proven in the Israeli study plus confirmed by the Oxford study that anti bodies can last for up to 80 years as debated in the American Congress . . So if your following the science ? Which some are obviously not ? My point stands because there's only two ways to get anti bodies and that's having had covid or getting the vaccine and never before in science has any virologist ever advised anyone who's already immune to a virus get the vaccine .

  15. 2 things I wonder if you could clarify: 1. Since mutations are just random corruptions of the genetic code fragment, there is no mechanism that prejudices mutations towards those that are more successful in spreading. So selection is not influencing the kind of mutations occurring, other than providing more opportunities to mutate from a variant that maintains transmissibility for longer. 2. If you can have Delta and Omicron simultaneously they are not competing, so why would omicron replace delta?

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