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Is Russia Winning The Economic War?

Vladimir Putin announced in a speech last month that Russia had weathered the worst of the Economic sanctions imposed by Western nations. He said that “gloomy predictions about the Russian economy’s future didn’t come true” and that the sanctions had hit foreign economies much harder than they had hit Russia. He added that “The weaponry of sanctions is a double-edged sword… and European countries had dealt a serious blow to their own economies all on their own.” So are the sanctions on Russia working? Or Is Russia winning the Economic War?

Business Retreats and Sanctions Are Crippling the Russian Economy – Yale University: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4167193

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Written by Patrick Boyle

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  2. You make no sense. You punching Mike Tyson in the nose will not bother him much. Nevertheless, it IS a declaration of war, and you're gonna regret that. Intent and result are not always proportional. But being at war is like being dead. You either are, or are not. So yes, EU has indeed declared war on Russia, not matter how effective the blows so far have been. I'm sorry, but I couldn't get passed that point

  3. Good analysis yet
    1. Vietnam & Korean wars, Russia & China works together.
    2. Every country have it's share of debts, USA , Japan,Italy, Germany…etc, so issue is whether that Country have resources to revive quickly without heavy internal strife. Financial crisis is usually Global n not something that can be isolated.
    3. Russia standard of living is lower than EU, they probably can bear austerity hence big loss of energy revenue isn't fatal . Russia have low foreign debt vs Japan, USA, Italy….
    TQ

  4. Hey Patrick– can you do a review on J Powell's speech and explain what economic inferences he's making for the future, as well as explaining and breaking down this forecast he's making? I think there is so much confusion about the different benchmarks of the economy despite him claiming it's as clear as day.

    Thanks for your time! Love your videos!

  5. One thing with respect to inflation that many people omit, is that whilst this inflation is painful the upside is that savings accounts (for a long time a safe and stable source of compounding interest) now actually have a worth while interest rate on them and thus may encourage savings. Ex: my Ally savings account is currently at 2% which is significantly more than my "high yield" CD of .65

  6. The US invades Afghanistan and Iraq and nobody says a word about the "morality" of invading a sovereign nation.
    Russia invades Ukraine and the same people who were silent about the US's many invasions are now up in arms.

  7. Dear Patrick,

    Thank you for your witty and well-grounded videos on YouTube.

    I am a financial educator and blogger from Ukraine.

    I invite you for 1 hour live session with Ukrainian on my channel.

    We can discuss your latest video "Is Russia Winning The Economic War?" and the Economist article "How Ukraine can win the war"

    By participating you will not only grow your YouTube subscribers but help Ukrainians better understand the economic effects of war and sanctions needed.

    I had a similar live with Ramin Nakisa, if needed I'll ask for a reference.

    Lyubomyr

  8. Very important on rubles. Imports from valuable countries shrinked for more than 50-60%, therefore there are less demand for it. Measures from the CB are withdrawn (some) and it is still so strong, which is bad for the economy (no imports – only exports, which means less rubles with the strong rubles)

  9. This was Patrick quite a good video, this was a fairly objective presentation….So for sure Russia will face huge challenges in near future during the next six months because the oil and gas revenues will gradually shrink from the European Union customers, Europe is not eager to support Putin's war adventures…. And there are no realistic possibilities of huge increases of oil and gas sales to China and India because of logistical reasons, for example, the distances are bigger, there are no gas pipelines to India etc etc….

  10. Agree with most of what you are saying but.
    You need rubles to buy oil and gas and other stuff from Russia.
    So you are being force to buy rubles.

    Also, if you are Russia why wood you want to keep your money abroad in a wester currency in a wester bank.
    If you ARE RUSSIAN, KEEP YOUR MONEY IN RUSSIA, WHERE IT IS Safe FROM WESTER SANCTIONS.

  11. Too bad Former Vice President Biden shut down US production of oil and gas, eliminating US energy independence that we had with President Trump. Maybe if Putin sends a few million dollars to "The Big Guy", Biden will lift sanctions.

  12. One important aspect that isn't mention is how the inflation is driven. In Europe the inflation is mostly driven by the energy while in Russia it is partly due to sanctions. As time goes on and Europe will find alternative energy sources around the globe, the inflation will lessen but yet remain in Russia.

  13. Western sanctions never had any chance of turning Russian oligarchs against Putin. When the West seized their assets, the oligarchs didn't have anyone to turn to for help except for Putin, this includes the oligarchs who would have been the most willing to turn against Putin and ally themselves with the West. In effect, the sanctions only solidified Putin's control of his country's most wealthy and powerful people, something he has wanted to accomplish since taking power. By nullifying the oligarchs' foreign assets, they are more under Putin's control than ever, and it has effectively ended whatever threat they posed to his political power in Russia. The oligarchs, because of their foreign and overseas assets, were the only individuals who ever posed a legitimate political threat to Putin. Obviously Putin would have wanted those assets under his control as well, but I think he'll take what he can get at this point.

  14. Well, what about his imposition into selling gas only in rubles? Wouldn't that create a huge demand for rubles? Hasn't India and China bought a shitton of rubles recently?

  15. Put it this way. Putin is spitting fibs. A country who dpnt want to publish economy stats means either they want to manipulate the numbers like CCP or nothing to publish. Look at the war they declare no fluid movement.

  16. Honestly I appreciate you and your content < Technical Analysis is good but I find It truly baffling that major crypto youtubers just look mostly at pure T.A and completely ignore the bigger narrative of why BTC is pumps/pumped and why the future outlook will be even rosier than it seems. It's kinda irresponsible to ignore the fact that each ETF launch so far has caused a major dump at the peaks of BTC. We were already on shaky footing with historically low volume and almost pure whale pumps,narrowly avoiding a long-term bear market. More emphasis should be put into day tradiing as it is less affected by the unpredictable nature of the market. I have made over 12BTC from day tradng with Aaron Casey insights and charts.His been one step ahead of other analysis.

  17. Biggest thing left out about this is the fact that western countries are starting to separate themselves from that Russian dependency for energy. The United States is also doing this with China. I think this is most important because why would we want to give money to people who want to destroy us. It would just be best to let them deal with each other while we can deal with everyone else.

  18. One observation regarding the value of the ruble, it's value is what it is and all governments take various measures to prop their currency, with various degrees of success. That being said those who need ruble buy ruble at the current price, those who need dollars buy dollars at the current price, the volume of transactions have no bearing on the value, there are lots of currencies out there, some even more valuable than ruble which have close to 0 volumes of international trade because no one buys and sells them for speculation on Forex market (who buys Mongol tugrik or Botswanian pula?).

  19. Most of the unemployed workers are now in the army and going to ukraine shortly. That's how Phoops has got over not paying them, they don't appear to be paying their fighting forces in Ukraine!

  20. no, they're losing, so many people that were the backbone of the economy left and others are sent to the war. Add sanctions on top of that and the money needed to arm all those mobilized people, they're in deep shit

  21. Remember, it's so called Russia (this name stollen from Ukraine) but not really. Historical names of political entity on today`s territory of Rusiian Federation with Moscow, as a capital: Moscowia till 1721ac, Russian Empire (1721-1917), USSR (1917-1991), Russian Federation, but never Russia, as this name is greak transliteration of RUS`. Rus` or Ukraine had only one capital – old legendary Kyiv. For people that trying to understand War in Ukraine have to know that fact. Moscowia – RE – RF started in Kyiv, but Kyiv was and is Ukrainian.

  22. I will forever be indebted to you, You've changed my whole life and i continue to preach about your name for the whole world to hear you've saved me from a huge financial debt with just little investment,Thanks so much Luciana cruz

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