Rebel Capitalist
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in Economy
Michael Burry Warns Of The Treaded “Bullwhip Effect”
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UE has the author beat on this topic. He was covering this months ago. He is "closer" to the subject because he works retail.
I own businesses. Yes, you’ve nailed it George.
At 6:15 George admits that he doesn't know how the retail supply chain works. I think that he underestimates the ability of a large corporation like Macys to manage their inventory. They probably employ buyers who know the business quite well.
Can ammo have a bullwhip effect too? Cause this shit been sitting more stable than gold price wise. 9mm been at 30 cents a round for the past year and is literally going up again despite 0 demand.
George, you’ve also got agency problem. On average, how many CEOs / CFOs are going to keep their jobs by pitching “pessimism” to their Boards… not many.
this guy wears the dopes aviators!
Most box stores have containers sitting outside full of goods.
George, it seems the dollar milkshake seems to be happening. That would mean the dollar rises but also that a lot of eurodollars will be coming to the USA. This might very well prop up the economy for a while longer while destroying the world economy.
Maybe have Tom Luongo on if you can stand the f-boms?
The stimulus checks pulled some of my future purchases to the present so now that I got it a couple years ago I don’t have demand for that item now
I don't think so. If that's true, then the drop in demand would hit hard and then the "whipsaw fed" would immediately react by stopping tightimg which they want to stop in the first place…they want to create more debt because they are gobalist.
I remember Macy's at the Biltmore. I bought perfume for my wife. Apple poison is what it was called for $99. I remember deciding then to never go through the store again. The parking was on the other side and we went through the store to get to the bookstore we wanted to go to. That was ten years ago. I still would not go back there to look at their $600 purse being on sale. I learned my lesson.
this what used to happen in the 70s and 80s before sophisticated just in time/supply chain mgmt algorithms were implemented.
Yields are gonna rise this is nothing like 2008 the run into treasuries is over as Greespain said bond bubble will pop it's just impossible to predict but now it's easy the Central banks are telling us so its the end of the biggest bubble ever.
The Uneducated Economist talks about the Bullwhip all the time.
Dude, you looking like hunter s Thompson. Looking good brah!!
Why Does he call it the servacy sickness?
dreaded ?
If the bull whip effect is in play and current prices are the “discount” phase then we’re really not ready for what’s to come when inventory starts to go back down. Inflation is going to be through the roof. Current prices even at a discount are still not cheap at all!!!
China hires more workers? Really?
What are you leaving out?
Bullwhip for the slaves?
Beware lest God spues you out.
I don’t think we will see this bull whip effect take place. I think supply chain will get smoother and prices will go down as the fed raises rates.
Did you take courses to learn about finance after you retired? If so, which courses did you find beneficial ?
I bought my very nice leather sofas in 2009/2010 during the last recession at a 50% discount. Late this year or next year will be a great time for anyone who has saved and needs to make a purchase.
George want to be my vp indy liby
My EGO is massive, Truthfully, which EGO tho
Cue Deflation you should bought at good potato salad but cannot leave because we just want you to be miserable, LIVE Fearless
Sale at Macy's buy Swedish😉
💎
Odd thought, but it occurred to me the event of the Great Shutdown following on the heels of China running out of headroom to build ghost cities has taken our eyes off the commodity ball somewhat. Combined [with a wheelbarrow full of "stimulus"], the effect is whiplash Only the clearest of economic minds are seeing this [and I barely scratch the surface], at a time where the oval office needs a foghorn permanently manned on account of the daily emanations. Beware of PPI numbers being trotted out to distract from the ongoing mess: manufacturers are sitting in a time delay bubble that does not reflect speed of money.
wow you can talk
This was called "The Beer Game" in Peter Senge's book "The Fifth Discipline"
Michael Burry and Adam Taggart must watch The Uneducated Economist. UE was talking about this a year ago with lumber inventories and expanded it to the overall supply and demand of retail in our economy.
Lance is ducking great. Bring him on your show George.
Pateeto patata potatoe!
Great scenario
Uneducated Economist was talking about this long before anyone else. Surprised you didn't know since he is at your events.
Let's go Brandon
Inventory kills
Global bullwhip effect has been in effect since Summer of 2020 when the stimulus started to flow.
When the lockdowns started in March, companies slashed production across the board to avoid getting caught with excess inventory. But, supplies of finished goods fell short of demand because all of the extra money injected into the system; demand which was feared to fall off a cliff, went up, not down, even for high priced items like tractors and cars. Procurement Departments across multiple industries have been playing catch-up, riding the bullwhip ever since.
Now that the recession is here, but not being reported, that's the opposite problem for Buyers, but same Global Bullwhip.
How bout the distortion between the dxy and gold and silver. The dxy at 108 looks like the dollar is strong. Deceptive.
Nice vid. I'd also like to add that people front-loaded orders to compensate for supply chain problems. My business was buying 5k boxes/cartons a quarter. Suddenly, cardboard has 3-month lead times. So now I order 10,000 boxes. Did I suddenly double my business? No. But I'll hoard that shit like toilet paper during COVID, because I don't want to be caught with my dick in my hand 3 months from now.
Good news is, eventually demand rebalances, supply chains become more efficient, and prices drop.
Wonder how much of the “sales” is related to people stocking up to beat inflation and availability issues?
The Fed is not dumb.They know exactly what they do: bankrupt the West.
And iBonds are paying 9.62%…
Are Macy near you have everything on sales as well?