Pre vaccine fatality rates

Lower than previously thought

Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand (16th March 2020)

Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team

We assumed

Incubation period of 5.1 days

Infectious 12 hours before to 4.6 days after


Non-uniform attack, applied to the GB population

Result in an IFR of 0.9%

with 4.4% of infections hospitalised

10.4 day stay

30% of hospitalised, ICU (50% death rate)

(not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality)

Age-stratified infection fatality rate of COVID-19 in the non-elderly informed from pre-vaccination national seroprevalence studies

Stanford California, Rome, Montreal

40 eligible national seroprevalence studies,

covering 38 countries with pre-vaccination seroprevalence data.

For 29 countries publicly available age-stratified COVID-19 death data,

and age-stratified seroprevalence information were available,

and were included in the primary analysis.

IFRs for 0 to 59 years

median IFR = 0.035%

(IQR, 0.013 – 0.056%)

Without accounting for seroreversion

(average time from seroconversion to seroreversion at 3-4 months)

IFRs for 0 to 69 years

IFR = 0.095%

0 to 19 years

IFR = 0.0003%

20 to 29 years

IFR = 0.003%

30 to 39 years

IFR = 0.011%

40-49 years

IFR = 0.035%

50-59 years

IFR = 0.129%

60-69 years

IFR = 0.501%

At a global level

Pre-vaccination IFR,

may have been as low as,

0 to 59 years = 0.03%

0 to 69 years = 0.07%

Global population

94% younger than 70 years

91% younger than 65 years

86% younger than 60 years

The current analysis suggests a much lower pre-vaccination IFR in non-elderly populations than previously suggested.

Large differences did exist between countries and may reflect differences in comorbidities and other factors.

These estimates provide a baseline from which to fathom further IFR declines with the widespread use of,


Prior infections

Evolution of new variants.

Unmitigated epidemic
(March 2020)
UK deaths = 510,000 (168,913)

US deaths = 2.2 million (1,065,152)

During 2021 and 2022

Vaccination, new variants, prior infections,

resulted in a marked decline in the IFR

Written by Dr. John Campbell

Hello Everyone,My name is John Campbell and I am a retired Nurse Teacher and A and E nurse based in England. I also do some teaching in Asia and Africa when time permits. These videos are to help students to learn the background to all forms of health care. My PhD focused on the development of open learning resources for nurses nationally and internationally.


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  1. Ferguson was a monster and should never have been allowed the use of a abacus let alone a-computer. If he'd been more educated like you Dr. Campbell we'd have been a lot better off. I'm not a medical expert but even I could see at the time his modelling was the nightmare stuff of a madhouse, so the government should have known it too but being the idiots they are, we can't forgive them, or the doctors who ignored the an obvious truth – 0.10 is another world to 0.010

  2. The cdc itself stated on their site, that over 90% of those who died, had co morbidities and or were obese. Countries with sick pple will have higher numbers. So out of the half a percent, the vast majority had co morbidities. So the real chance of death for someone who didn't have co morbidities, would be less than one tenth of 1 percent. This is IF you believe the data. This is extremely low. A lot would argue their death counting was way off as well, because of the way they counted deaths. The tiny chance of dying could be even muuuch less. If one was tested positive, and died of something else, their death was put into the statistic of covid related deaths. I personally read the cdc guidance on filling out death certificates. They told healthcare workers to put covid on the second line of contributing factors. If Covid was listed in contributing factors on a death certificate, the cdc would count that death in their statistics. This is criminal.

  3. The information u gave out in this video is almost exactly the same thing I was saying 2 years ago. Even before the vaccines came out I made precise and I mean PRECISE predictions about what would transpire. This is all before I had watched ANY YouTube naysayers. U see… was simply a matter of common sense the entire time. You didn't have to be an expert in any field to recognize what was happening and what was obviously going to happen in the future.

  4. It amazes me that nobody is calling you a white supremacist for saying the same things I was saying 2 years ago. Nobody is banning you from social media. As they did to me. It is a strange new world we live in.

  5. Dear Dr. John Campbell, I happen to be an ordinary MSc. graduate in a social science field but i have good basic knowledge in statistics. My frustration then was how would the infection Fertlity rate be treated as case Fertlity rate. It was depressing that so called leaders and experts influencing policies took this approach while other experts with different opinions were demonized and common sense people like me treated as been on the fringe of society. You speak good English to explain this but i think what happened is simply evil because there is and always was a hidden agenda.

  6. If the pre vaccine IFR is really as low as the research suggests then there is massive hospital billing fraud going on in the states. It is very possible that hospitals are claiming people died from Covid 19 when they really died with Covid 19. The government pays hospitals large sums of money for Covid 19 patients in the states. My mother had Covid 19 and the doctor at the hospital said that it was time for her to go home, the hospital staff tried to talk her into staying longer because the greedy hospital wanted more money from the taxpayers. Massive fraud, Cemetary's get money from the government for Covid 19death burials. The taxpayers in the United States have been ripped off.

  7. Here's va question, is it better to plan for something and later find out it was not necessary, or not to have planned and later find out that plans should have been made?

  8. Imagine a vaccine so safe and effective the far right wingers pretend it is not. Most deniers will listen to a nurse who simply wants to pad his retirement. Watch Back to the Science to learn from someone who can read science papers.

  9. My memory is exceedingly good and I remember the Italy outbreak overwhelming medical services and coming in at 3.2/case death rate. This would make even the most prudent err on the side of caution as was obviously done.

  10. Nothing to see here – move along now – no eugenicist plan to depopulate the peasants (again) by means of government approved medical 'disease prevention'. Please disregard all reports of SADS as coincidence and hysteria, and do not question any link to such plans by billionaire 'philanthropists'. Hmmm.

  11. I have cardiovascular heart disease , which has been under control for 10 years. Since the vaccine I am suffering from angina . I have consulted 3 different gp's. I might as well could have spoken to the homeless guy on the corner. NO HELP.

  12. No….the statistics had nothing to do with it. This was purely economic….pharma made out, Fauci made out, Collins made out, the politicians in the service of big pharma made out, and the government got bigger. Everybody wins, right?

  13. Doctor, is it not likely that the fatality rate would have been higher had hospitals been overwhelmed by massive numbers of patients? Couldn't lockdown advocates point to that possibility as justification for the lockdowns?

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