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Probability of Lab Leak is 85% | Jamie Metzl and Lex Fridman

Lex Fridman Podcast full episode: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K78jqx9fx2I
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GUEST BIO:
Jamie Metzl is an author specializing in topics of genetic engineering, biotechnology, and geopolitics.

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Written by Lex Clips

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  1. If a new coronavirus type infecting humans is first found in the same one-kilometer grid square as the only lab in the world where coronaviruses are known to be undergoing genetic manipulation to increase their infectiveness, rather than in any other square kilometer of the world, what is the likelihood that the two events, human infection and genetic manipulation, are unrelated?

  2. Considering cv just did 27 mutations in 6 months to become Omni without anybody noticing – I'd say it is quite likely that it was in humans for a while in poorer parts and just didn't get noticed.

  3. 150-million square kilometers of land on earth.so what are the chances that this originated on the same square kilometer of land that a ghetto biolab specializing in creating super viruses. Also, this is a perfect example of why China will never win. They paid their lab workers such dirt wages that they had to sell the test animals at a 2nd century wet market.

  4. Well… that explanation was kind of a anecdotal mess tbh. first of all you need to look at the mechanisms for replication within the bats compared to humans, then look at the same type of stuff in possible intermediary species.

  5. Lets just say as a crazy hypocritical that the ace2 receptor in humans is kind of similar to receptors in bats or pigs for example. If that is the case then an endemic virus in bats can turn into a pandemic variants in humans or pigs pretty quickly. Which sars and camels that dynamic might look different, say if the virus has to explore a larger genetic landscape to jump species. Ofc its more complicated than that, but you actually have to do the analysis to know with any kind of certainty what happened. Pandemics general go from a variant with endemic equilibrium properties in its genetics in the original host species to a variant with no real endemic equilibrium properties in the species it jumps to or alternatively but not likely the virus that is in endemic equilibrium in the host species can act like a virus with endemic equilibrium properties in humans but needs time to reach some form of herd immunity before the virus actually acts like its endemic. and so on

  6. Covid definitely did not act like a new equilibrium variant in humans given the series of variants we have seen with changes to its dynamics, aka its ability to adapt to broad immunity by other means than removing functions or symptoms. A virus that can only evade immunity in the population by becoming less dangerous or infectious to an individual with no immunity is in endemic equilibrium, a virus that can say mutate to couple more easily to the ace 2 or increase viral load and so in is not in such an equilibrium because it has accessible genetic modifications that would improve its transmissibility and severity in people with no immunity at the same time as doing the same functionally for people with immunity to existing variants.

  7. Wether it can jump species easily in the context of being in endemic equilibrium in its host species is a tricky and complicated question, there are no broad brush answers here that have any certainty attached to them.

  8. Btw a virus in endemic equilibrium in its host species still undergoes evolution, like flu or the common cold in humans, but its slower and far more likely to produce changes that are less dangerous and transmissible even for members of the same species with no immunity! because the main mechanism remaining to be modified if the detection mechanism of the immune system of said species. so it becomes a game of changing antigens without changing function too much, ofc still including a lot of randomness.

  9. “Furthermore, our current study also demonstrates that the genetic diversity of ACE2 among bats is greater than that observed among known SARS-CoV susceptible mammals, highlighting the possibility that there are many more uncharacterized bat species that can act as a reservoir of SARS-CoV or its progenitor viruses. This calls for continuation and expansion of field surveillance studies among different bat populations to eventually identify the true natural reservoir of SARS-CoV.“

  10. I caught the Heineken several years before 2019. I’m convinced it was lab made and introduced into world a lot earlier than we think and allowed to mutate until the point that it was appropriate to weaponize in the eyes of the public. For what reason? I do not know.

  11. From one study showing bats species have a greater genetic diversity in the ACE2 so showing that the specific bat populations in questions are not likely to have an endemic sars-cov virus variant that could jump species pretty easily and cause a pandemic is not as trivial as applying a broad brush. We are talking about a subject here ehere most people think viruses reach endemic equilibrium by means of the equivalent of magic beans. A lot of the broader themes in epidemiology are frankly ridiculous, like the theme that pathogens get milder over time because of adaption to behaviors, which is what {high severity/death rate —> evolutionary pressure towards mild disease} proposes, frankly this is an intellectual pipe dream. thats just an example of why you should be really careful about rules of thumb, they are not real, they just tend to be right after endemic equilibrium appears. but the criteria for endemic equilibrium simply has very little to do with behavior directly.

  12. either a virus exhaust positive gain of function related to severity and transmissibility due to topology in the potential genetic tree with respect to function in relation to the immune systems of the potential host species in question or it dies out, those are the only 2 criteria that would make a virus less dangerous with certainty, so when you reach equilibrium in the sense that all possible gains in transmissibility is linked to evading detection rather than mechanisms that can cause more severe disease, the you are in equilibrium and the virus will act like an endemic. maybe a local equilibrium, but thats how situations like the flu or cold arise roughly, and viruses then need intermediary species to provide selection towards or around topological obstructions in their genetics with respect to human populations with immunity. But the details in all cases here depends on the exact topology of the virus meta genome and the leakage probability given our immunity collectively, or if you will the likely hood of large genetic leaps that normally have a probability close to 0 even given a pandemic, a silly example is covid turning into a flu virus by accident, thats such a large leap that its practically impossible, like the probability of tunneling through a wall by running at it, but much more likely yet large jumps can occur in principle and we even don’t know what the meta genome of a virus looks like in full detail.

  13. it is amazing that something as ridiculous as germ theory is still being taken seriously. As if they could actually isolate a v"virus", modify it and "infect" anything living with it. Its all pseudo science, modern day alchemy and at this point just laughable.

  14. Man what frustrates me is that lex says he is neither left nor right but when it actually gets political on his podcast he continues to ONLY pick up right narratives (in the same way as joe rogan) and thereby gives credibility to them. Bill Gates, Fauci, wokeness, critical race theory, Bidens age… These are the points he is talking about. But when a guest says sth critical against the right (which barely happens) then he defends the right in the name of empathy. Lex is misusing his channel to continously give credibility to outsider- sometimes pseudo scientific ideas and thereby helps spreading distrust in political institutions and the state.

  15. Anyone calling conspiracy, not with that furin cleavage site ONLY found in lab grown viruses … It's like having a DNA test for your ancestory and finding out that DNA is made of ur mother and father's best friend… It's undeniable genetic evidence that they are trying to silence and word their way around… Is there a probability that father's best friends dna accidently emptied in a public swimming pool and later that day , mother swam and washed it IN THE SAME POOL and u were born? YES there's probability associated with everything… But the more likely chance is that your mother did him …

  16. What ever it was it's unfortunate that the poorer countries are getting screwed over during this and that government's just can't agree to just figured it out by first saying they aren't sure but this is where we are going to start instead of. Don't do this while we can and you don't get to say we can't but when we get caught it's your fault not theres

  17. Lex idk how often you read comments. They're not all bad. Like this one. Thank you for everything you do to make these videos for us. If not for people like you and Joe and others just interested in learning and talking idk where I'd be right now. Your inspirational and a person I strive to be. I would love to have a conversation with you.

  18. Probability of intentional lab release is higher! I heard one calculation of probability at 1006 to 1. The zoonotic emergence has one in. 1006 chance of being the source. That’s much higher than

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