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Producer Price Inflation Declined, Fed to Pivot Soon?

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U.S. producer price inflation declined by more than expected in October. But, what does that actually mean? If we take a look at this chart from Bloomberg, we can see that it looks like inflation for producer prices has been coming down.

We see both the gray bars, which are excluding food and energy, and then the red line, which is the inclusion of food and energy.

I always have to point this out. The reason why you have core inflation readings and then the broader basket of inflation readings when they exclude food and energy to get that core reading. The only reason for that is because, not because food and energy are volatile is because food and energy are necessary.

Timecodes
0:00 What the PPI Decline Means
1:35 Sponsor: Bullion Card
3:22 Easing Cost Pressures
5:04 Market Anticipating Tightening in Federal Reserve

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#PPI #Inflation #FedPivot

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  1. People (even economists) seem to confuse price increases with inflation. Inflation is a reduction in the value of a currency. Price increases can result from inflation, but they can have other causes too, like an increase in demand or a disruptions in transportation or raw inputs. The Fed is trying to fight price "inflation" by destroying demand.

  2. The apmex card is confusing to me because although I am earning points redeemable in gold, I am paying interest on purchases I make. That's an added cost on top of the premium I'll pay if I purchased gold with cash

  3. I am still on the fence on how fast rate hikes are going to be into the winter. We will see how diesel shortage in US through the winter months may impact cost-push inflation, and if it will impact Fed’s decision on rate hikes into 2023

  4. QT = quantitative tapering by the FED, like me jogging to the end of my driveway = running….lol

    Balance sheet still WELL over 8 TRILLION DOLLARS.

    They will NEVER taper meaningfully and will continue to monetize US Debt into perpetuity.

  5. This isn't entirely accurate Your focus is solely on the demand side and ignore supply. Demographics and the commodity cycle also play a role. This is also referred to as cost push inflation if you see a significant oil shock price increase due to supply issue CPI will soon move up. Proof of this can be found by looking at countries energy prices and their CPI and you see that's the main factor not the fiscal stimulation

  6. Here in Australia energy prices are going to go, and have been going, up massively. Inflation will follow I expect. Businesses will have to pass the extra costs onto consumers. As well, there have been bad food growing weather events, so food will go up. This will translate into weird balances. Some things will have to go up, but people won't be able to afford them, so GDP will probably go down. Some things might become cheaper. Maybe.

  7. I generally like your analysis, but it cheapens your integrity with the sensationalization and the long ads.

    As an alternative may I suggest

    1) that you reduce sensationalizing to draw in viewers, viewers watch because they trust your intellect not for entertainment.

    and

    2) when you embed an ad for a sponsor make an intro statement saying that our sponsor today is paying to provide you with this content, I request that you watch thru the ad as a thank you to our sponsor for their support of the time and effort required to do the research, to record, and edit these videos which inform our viewers, and you may find they offer a product or service that will be beneficial to your future.

    Thank you…

  8. Man your new audio settings need tuning. They boom in my ears when on headphones. Always have to lower the volume now and even then the voice part just seems to boom in the ears

  9. Ignoring food and energy is such bs. All the "reasons" are just excuses for the elites to avoid looking like incompetent idiots. The thing is, an economy exists to SERVE the needs and wants of the people for goods and services. Thus the purpose of metrics ought to be measures of how well the economy is serving that purpose. And since producing and providing food and energy is a core part of that purpose and is a significant factor of the experience of the people as to how well the economy is serving them, to exclude or downplay food and energy should really be an academic crime against intellectual honesty and properly assessing an economy.

  10. Just a fun fact: About food and energy buying and Maslow law. In Romania, immediately after WW2, for a few years, in the COUNTRYSIDE nobody bought food and energy. Everybody produced it's own food, clothing, everything. Wood for heating, horse for transportation. The population received rations of salt, oil and sugar from the state. Even if they had the money to buy there were no stores anywhere except in the big cities. So it is possible for the population to not buy food and energy if the situation really gets out of hand..

  11. When people stop paying for anything else than food and energy, that means also that the economy is getting more and more simplified, and when from country's viewpoint versatile economy is major building block for having abundance, people having no money to buy the stuff other than food and energy, is really bad thing.

  12. Inflation has not declined look at a dozen eggs look at a lot of things that people use every single day they have not declined. Again collapse artificially low interest rates are the drugs for Wall Street no matter what the cost of the country is

  13. Bottom line is that nobody knows what’s going to really happen and when because the rules constantly change and interventions constantly happen and so much is kept secret.

  14. On the bullion card you prommote, we all know they don't have the physical metal to back a 100% physical delivery for everyone.
    And it will end like all the other scams prommoted like, crypto, nft, ftx and art shares.

  15. Wouldn't it be nice to hawe two indexes.
    One for shelter, food, and energy, which drives what oeople need to survive.
    The other index for ecpverything else.

    The USA seems to be a very undeveloped country for statistics.
    In Sweden, we used to think that good statistics were important for good governance.

    And the state of governance in the USA seems to need some improvement.

    Much of the economic debate in the USA seems to be about what the real economy is, behind the faulty statistics.
    You never get to the more interesting debate of what to do to improve things!

    Although, your politicians seem to like confusion, almost as much as money printing.

  16. Not really much to up date I guess more of a business as usual video… eventually a pivot will happen… really? It's funny watching some of my favorite channels are really trying to just make that money but don't actually have any news to report. But they become part of the information overload problem. Then blame the youtube algorithm but really people unsub them. Joe I don't want this to happen to you man. Go for quality over quantity. I love 95% of your stuff, cheers.

  17. Make a budget in excel with 2 columns, the first is minimum possible per category, the second is comfortable or normal per category. The difference is your discretionary expenses. Seems obvious, but that discretionary spending % is an important metric in budgeting (that treasury departments don’t seem to understand, lol).

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