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Retail Booms: Signals Higher Rates Ahead!

The latest preliminary retail spending figures from the ABS for July 2022 were stronger than expected, showing that despite weaker consumer confidence they are still spending. That said, the data is not inflation adjusted, and the mortgage rate hikes had hardly begun to flow through.
It does leave the RBA open to biggest (50 basis point) rate hikes in September.

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  1. The ABS should produce statistics of "People sleeping on the Streets per suburb" and "People begging for money on the Streets" based off CCTV camera data. The line chart taken from the data should be superimposed over the Unemployment Rate chart.

  2. The other factor to also consider is that in July/ August people will be getting their tax refunds (eg. LMTA) which was promised in the May election and still working their way through the economy.

  3. so maybe the treasurer and the reserve bank was correct…. There are plenty of savings form the pandemic payouts….

    But

    If inflation is up, does the retail spending assessed by dollar values spent and adjusted per inflation?

    If not people are buying less but paying much more for it.

  4. Stimulus money still flowing !
    Spend, spend, spend, for tomorrow will be fine and sunny.
    If it does rain, Albo and the gang will look after you by selling Australia to the Chinese.
    Let the good times roll !

  5. Like to know how much of this spending is on credit … not real money … spend happy people are going to take some time to change their spending habits acquired over the last decade . Lets see what the numbers show in several months …. how much credit debt is there ???

  6. We baby boomers are cashed up and spending , the interest rate rises aren't affecting us , ironically it's giving us more money to spend , trying to bring inflation under control using the old methods of interest rate rises, won't work, we are living in a new financial world . Our old capitalist financial system is no longer fit for purpose.

  7. Of course young people are still spending, what else are they going to spend their money on ?. They've been priced out of the housing market, so they are just buying others things. This is the financial system that our governments have created, this goes back to John Howard's days when he said his policies will make a lot of people wealthy, and it did , and this is the result.

  8. Quite simply spending has to be crushed. Persuasion has failed. Punishment is required. It’s not as if this logic is concealed in a secret document crafted by those ‘Central Planners’ is it?

  9. The fingernail and toenail shop was packed when I walked past recently.
    A friend back from the Gold Coast was amazed at the numbers dining out.
    The money keeps rolling through the system.

  10. I own two supermarkets and two liquor stores, all in different suburbs, all different demographics. We record our sales weekly and have monthly P&L's. I have been doing this since 1990. These figures are completely the opposite to what I am seeing in my own stores. I've never seen anything like this and I'm more fearful than I've ever been. I'm glad I'm debt free.

  11. Elderly are a big number, with people dying like flies and war around the corner loss of everything is here. The banks and government, Billionaires are rubbing their hands together. Have you got your will in order? They are hoping you don't. Do you have anyone to leave your assets to? They are and know many don't. War and forced recession after the forced pandemic is a very evil way to take the whole world into the new world order. Many are not ready or prepared. Good luck and stop wasting your time. Tic toc.

  12. So non inflation adjusted looks bullish, though the inflation adjusted figures will not be so rosy. Though if they were using a true rate of inflation then they would be panicking.

  13. The problem is that the banks have been super slow to increase repayments. My mortgage repayments have only increased to reflect the first rate rise this year. I'm with CBA. I know of other people who are with other banks who are in varied stages of repayment increases, but hardly anyone I know has had the full raft of rises baked into their repayments.

  14. I just went shopping at woollies.. Chicken uo $6.50, T bones up $5.00…Avo bags up $2.50. The point is everything across the board is $2.00 – $5.00 on everything. 1st time in a long time I actually thought what I needed to buy and left the NOT NEEDED on the shelf. Still cost me $150.00..

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