With the RBA now tightening interest rates, what is critical to understand when the RBA will officially surrender to inflation is to look at forward leading indicators.
When it comes to the property market, Adams and North think there are three indicators which need to be paid close attention to, which are:
o Consumer Confidence;
o New property starts (something which Adams and North will come back to); and
o Property listings.
Today, Adams and North are going to focus on residential property listings for Sydney and the surrounding regional suburbs using data from SQM Research.
Property listing data is a better forward leading indicator than credit, because vendors list their properties on the market before buyers and borrowers purchase property.
We should note in a previous show, Adams indicated that the three areas of the property which are likely to crack first are:
o New housing estates;
o Commercial property; and
o Residential investor property.
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Caveat Emptor! Note: this is NOT financial or property advice!!