Sydney’s Debt Sheep Are Scrambling Like Rats

With the RBA now tightening interest rates, what is critical to understand when the RBA will officially surrender to inflation is to look at forward leading indicators.

When it comes to the property market, Adams and North think there are three indicators which need to be paid close attention to, which are:

o Consumer Confidence;
o New property starts (something which Adams and North will come back to); and
o Property listings.

Today, Adams and North are going to focus on residential property listings for Sydney and the surrounding regional suburbs using data from SQM Research.

Property listing data is a better forward leading indicator than credit, because vendors list their properties on the market before buyers and borrowers purchase property.

We should note in a previous show, Adams indicated that the three areas of the property which are likely to crack first are:

o New housing estates;
o Commercial property; and
o Residential investor property.

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Caveat Emptor! Note: this is NOT financial or property advice!!


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  1. In this current macro situation the only way to take the sting out of inflation is to sort out the supply side!! For food and most household goods, deal with the ludicrous situation with fuel & energy cost inflation. It’s far from a free market, so the politicians can’t be accused of interfering in it to improve the situating for the general public. Put a rocket under visa / immigration services if they are hindering people wanting to come here to fill the labour shortage. Take a scythe to govt regulations which inhibit business startup and growth etc.

  2. Man I’m really glad I got obsessed with Macro and economic a few years ago after knowing next to nothing about the financial system. You both were a catalyst in that. Another good show lads.

  3. Great content chaps. Question: How will statements from SPEIF & BRICS impact AU macro policy moving forward? How should our new govt adapt policy moving forward?

  4. If you distributed all the wealth equally among the population, all that wealth will end up back in the hands of the top 10% within in one generation.
    The simple fact of economics, the study of human behaviour 101
    The majority have no idea nor the discipline to make it themselves

  5. They tend to be cheering the collapse of a corrupt system. But it hasnt happened, but they are getting excited to one day say… I told you so..

    Then again, life was better in 1995.

    To get inflation to go down, you actually need the cash rate ABOVE the inflation rate. If you know what i mean.

  6. When the sheep are scrambling like rats the fox is on the hunt. And if opportunity doesn't knock build a door. Some say the grass in greener on the other side. Some say it's greener where its watered.

  7. You guys are doing some great work,but these are real people who are unfortunately going to go through a very difficult time, please don't dehuminise them with these titles

  8. I have a sneaking suspicion that market downturns become self fulfilling prophecies in that the expectation of price falls gets progressively worse. Prices fall 2%, news articles/doom and gloom/word of mouth begins to scare people off, then 5% falls happen, then 10% and so on, with no one buying because people's expectations are continually lowering as the fearmongering and price falls get more out of control, totally independent of the cash rate hikes/inflation which are also happening in the background and other credit tightening of banking institutions. "Why buy at only a 20% price drop when I can buy at 25% price drop in 3 months?" "Why buy at a 25% price drop when I can buy at a 30% price drop in 6 months?"

  9. Awesome refresshing honest look without spin, Love it. Sacrifice the few for the greater good. why is not someone demanding RBA heads for getting it so wrong, Feels like we are all passengers on bus and the driver does not know where we are or how to get their but its somewhere in that direction. We are all informed they know where the accelerator and brakes are so everyone just hold on.

  10. Be fair, guys …
    People who got themselves into 'Way too much debt' did so with the Banks approval, based on the 'new' lending procedures the Fed govt implemented following the Haynes 'Financial Services Report' given to Friedenberg AND based on the financial advice (the ULTIMATE financial advice?) given by P Lowe that interest rates would not rise until 2024.

  11. A lot of investors are selling the properties that I have looked at, so you're correct Martin regarding investors getting out. Time will tell the rest of the story from here!

  12. Interesting that you mention the difference between Wollongong and Sydney. But what about the difference between Sydney, Adelaide and Perth for instance?
    People want to hang where they are often because a house is a home of course
    But an income to debt can be tipping point for movement 🤔

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