The Data Stream Says “Hike More, Hike Faster”

Being “data dependent”, the Fed will need to react to the latest data when they consider the next hike. Household confidernce has improved (from a low level) and jobs availability is rising.

Meantime in Europe, inflation is forcast to run higher thanks to gas prices.

Markets now expect higher rates for longer, which is why stock markets are weaker.

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  1. It’s not just inflation U.S. fighting now Mr. North, they’re defending more than current prices. It pays remember that. Very useful commentary Mr. North.

  2. To start with central banks thought they could get away with this transitory nonsense with the hope they wouldn’t have to do any damage to economy’s and asset prices by forecasting interest rates will lift before 2024. Then this changed to getting interest rates to more neutral settings why’ll many countries start introducing many wage increases. All this mucking around has wasted a lot of time and made inflation harder to bring down. OCRs need to shoot up high and fast . All central banks have done is guaranteed recessions and assets crashing. But it ok , keep blaming Russia and petrol instead of the 100 year pandemic and the hangover from it

  3. At this point I'm waiting for the whole global economy to blow up. Wage inflation HAS to arrive with such a strong demand for labour and when wages inflate we'll see some businesses go under.

    European countries and the US are all holding huge amounts of debt. Without spending cuts those economies are either going to need to print money or raise taxes.

    It's really hard to see this ending well. It feels like we're currently sitting in the eye of the hurricane. We have the US mid terms coming up after that could be the most bitter winter in a generation for the Northern hemisphere.

  4. Slovenia ha ha……former Nazi Lyenko Urbanchich, who was obviously Catholic, fled to Australia after WW2…..and was one of the major contributors to the Liberal party, along with other Nazi members who fled from Hungary, Croatia, and Germany.

  5. Labour tightness is only part of it. The biggest driver of employment (and inflation) is demand and the biggest driver of demand is all that stimulus that was created during COVID, and is still being poured into the global economy!

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