Turkey’s Unravelling Economy.

The Turkish lira has been in meltdown as President Erdogan rejected warnings on the dangers of his recent interest rate cuts. He vowed that there was “no going back”.

The currency, which has lost about 40 per cent of its value against the dollar since the central bank started lowering borrowing costs in September, fell to a new record low of TL18.36 against the dollar on Monday

Trading on Turkey’s main stock exchange was halted for the second consecutive session following a 5 per cent decline for the flagship index.

The Turkish president, said in a televised speech on Sunday night “Don’t expect anything else from me, as a Muslim, I will continue to do whatever the religious decrees require.”

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  2. I feel very sorry for my turkish friends that are retired or have to live on the minimum vage, of course the " elected " corrupt Dictator is to blame, but also the foreign influence, wars , refugees and the fact that there is no free Press left im the country contribute to the bad situation.

  3. mate who is bullshitting you about not being 'comfortable' talking about the economy, unless youre committing treason or terrorism or yelling in the presidents face there is no reason to fear turkish authorities. I highly doubt people are dragged off at buses at the next stop to be taken to jail for bad mouthing the president to their friends because a.the police hate him just as much as the civilians because they too are working class and are hit hard by rising prices because of the presidents interference with the central bank b.the police are corrupt so 1euro will save you and c.the countrys broke theres no way theres that much survelliance its just mostly lies to make him look more powerful/knowledgeable than he is. You can express frustrations about the economy and its management to others; friends, strangers, your classmates, your teachers anyone and also on social media without repercussions UNLESS its something about how the presidents close relative is a slut or something and it starts trending on twitter then no one in the country will be able to access social media without a vpn for a few days. haahahhaha. the threat and interference of state is not that bad really, and i really think what your forgetting is that turkey is too poor to track everyone and everyone in the country is effected by inflation and thus everyone has distaste for the countries mismanagement. people are just waiting to say bye bye erdogany in 2023. P.S those investigations are mostly related to treason or terrorism when it was at an all time high in those years they just assumed that people against him and the state would have ties to people trying to take it down but if all youve done is talk bad about him your let go. P.S.S turkeys problems are not super easy to solve anymore because whilst an independent CB would be nice it wont lift us out of how deep we have fallen TURKEY NEEDS REFORM AND ALSO TO PRODUCE ITS OWN HIGH TECH GOODS and without that we will always just be sweeping our problems under the rug, even if AKP loses the next election unless there are serious reforms in many sectors turkey will never live up to its potential. Also p.s.s.s how important is a so called 'educated' work force when unemployment is not ideal, when half of the general population has ATMOST a primary school education, and many people work informally n dont pay taxes. ALSO random but, if you werent raised in turkey trust me you will hate the public much more than its leaders.

  4. Great video Patrick. Can you perhaps do one on the wef please and also do you feel owning property as a source of income may be problematic in the future, for example compulsory purchase by government ? Many thanks

  5. First we have to understand how the valuta crisis occurs everytime in Turkey as this happened in the past quite a lot (1994 and 2001 as example). It has become something like a tradition.
    The problem in Turkey has always been the high rates of interest as interest is something that prevents a country from growing, investing and exporting. The push to raise the interest rates without a good fundamental reason is mostly done by domestic institutions and stakeholders that are linked to foreign institutions etc.

    There are two main reasons why the Lira has plummeted against the dollar in a very short period of time: market manipulators and the opposition that created a climate of fear and caused a catalyst to soar the dollar price.

    Market manipulators:

    These institutions and stakeholders are exactly the same ones that raises the dollar through markets / Forex / banks and pushes the government to raise interest. Why? Because they created a cycle in Turkey where they earn money over money by putting hot money in to the system, taking the interest and pull it out of Turkey by exchanging the domestic money in to their own money (dollar to TL and from TL to dollar). And this without investing a single cent in to the Turkish economy. This action is mostly done by banks and robber barons located in London as London is the financial hub of the world. They raise the dollar against the Lira, after that they selling it and buying it back on lower prices. The only tool that Turkey could use against this manipulation is by raising the interest rates but than again the same ones putting their money back in to the system, taking the interest profits and sucking out their money over and over again. The real reason that kept Turkey slowly losing blood.

    The opposition:

    Before the dollar surged against the lira, the opposition was busy spreading fear propaganda that Turkey's economy is in a big crisis. They were continuously criticizing the decision about the cut in the interest rates. In addition, they wrote letters to foreign ambassadors and threatened foreign investors not to invest in Turkey. And also carried out a sort of raid on the central bank and TUIK (Turkish Statistical Institute), questioning their independence. Day and night they spread lies that people would lose their savings et cetera. This whole propaganda machine acted like a big catalyst were the dollar surged against the lira from 12 to 18 in just one week!! And on top of this whole thing the prices of goods in Turkey soared also.

    Fear, panick and rush:

    This made people in Turkey anxious and started to panic. After the panic broke out, people rushed to the banks to exchange their liras for dollars. This created a gigantic domino effect whereby the demand for dollars increased enormously and the lira was getting dumped.

    After this crazness Erdogan came with strong measurements and halted this idiotic manipulation.

  6. Meanwhile Turkey Q3 GDP growth was 21% this year, all these so called pundits in the West are champing at the bit to see turkey fall, I am confident that you will be disappointed

  7. it all part of their plan. it's the great reset! not a joke not a conspiracy! Alex jones told us for years for this was coming! but we all laughed at him me included! but here we are! he was right!

  8. This kid if news or reporting or analysis of information on phenomenal situation like this video makes it biffulct for problem to be told by themselves i.e explaining some future as "because "not what it consituit as a whole

  9. The problem with the Turkish president ordegam is how he refuses to accept & admit Turkey is not a super power nor is it economically independent . The financial problem is global and way much bigger than Turkey to solve alone.

  10. Erdoğan: causes massive inflation. Raises minimum wage to compensate. Effective purchasing power of minimum wage labourers is still lower than it was pre-pandemic.
    Classic politician speak by Erdoğan. Causes an economic crisis, then tries to portray it as him looking out for the little guy.

  11. In my opinion the economy in Turkey is manipulated by the western countries to get rid of Erdogan, that man did lots of great things to Turkey! Also, they can talk all they want about Turkey joining the European Union, but we all know this is never going to happen. If Turkey joins the EU, it would be the biggest country with the biggest amount of citizens (voters). All of a sudden Turkey would be the big guy in a group with small European countries.

  12. Good video, but perhaps it doesn't need a better Central Bank policy at all. I would think that no Central Bank and a currency that is based on sound money would have better long term results.

  13. It is mostly political narrative rather than independent analysis of economic situation in Turkey. Dear, european hypocrite, mind your own country and business.

  14. Wow I watched your whole video without a break, how do you know that much detailed things about Turkey. One year ago I moved all of my money and work to another country from Turkey. Because Turkey is now in a point that is not returnable. Not only economicly. Justice, education, culture, society everything is collapsed. As a Turk, I can't imagine to return that hell again, it's disgusting

  15. Sir, This is more of a tirade than a proper assessment of Turkey's economic situation. First of all, the devaluation that you are referring to was reversed on the day that this video was published. Had you looked up the latest figures for the USD-TRY conversion rate minutes before publishing, you would have seen that the lira had gained a whopping 40% against the USD in a 'whiplash' move. Secondly, the low interest rate policy is going to produce exceptionally strong growth — just wait and see. For Turkey to find its proper place in the world, Turkey's economy must sustain two-digit growth on average for two decades or longer. I would be interested to hear the alternative you propose to achieve this result? After all, criticism is only meaningful when a better alternative is proposed. Are the Turks expected to live with the ignominy of having a national economy roughly a quarter the size of other leading powers in Europe? Surely not! Most of the criticism aimed at Erdogan arises not from any doubts about his economic policy but from an uncomfortable feeling that Erdogan is likely to succeed in freeing Turkey from the economic straitjacket that Turkey has been wearing since the 19th century. If you were in charge of Turkey's economy, what would you have done to overtake France and Germany in the near term? How is a high interest rate going to make Turkey a richer country, an industrial powerhouse that is on par with China et al?

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