Why America’s Enemies Can’t Dump the Dollar (yet)

Your explanation made perfect sense and I think the media and many influencers are simply propagandizing. The countries that owe more debt in USD than they have, must owe it to some country other than U.S., or couldn’t they just refuse to pay us? We aren’t really much of an exporter unless it’s food or oil, and for some reason this administration is destroying trade with sanctions and buying energy resources from other countries. What gives?

yes, the dedollarization should happen gradually so that everyone can do it without sudden changes to their lifestyle, still, it is for sure is happening, while everyone else can afford to do this over time, those whose native currency is the dollar will better adjust as well before the tipping point of no return or when the US decide to go to war with china, then, it will happen all at once.

The dollar has a lot to do which world geopolitics today:

Former US top strategist Zbignew Brzezinski said: “It is IMPERATIVE that no Eurasian challenger emerges capable of dominating Eurasia and thus also challenging America”. Because the US has just 4% of world’s population, and it’s isolated from Eurasia which has 70% of world’s population, or 87% with Africa included. Defensively, it’s a benefit to the US, but economically, it’s a handicap. That’s why, Eurasia is a rival to the US and the Euro a rival to the dollar.

How the US with an isolated 4% of world’s population stays a world hegemon? The dollar must stay as the world’s reserve currency. This allows the size of the US economy to be highly scaled up, instead of being limited by the fundamentals.

To be the world’s reserve currency, the dollar must circulate in the world. The US created a huge consumption economy and moved manufacturing outside, so that dollars flow out of the US to manufacturers like China or Japan. To make products, China & Japan need energy. So dollar is then circulated to Saudi mandated by the Petrol-dollar scheme. With the US stock and financial market much more lucrative than others, the dollars from Saudi are attracted back to the US. Money printed in the US to exchange for goods from outside ends up in Wall Street, where the rich gets richer. And that completes the cycle of circulation of the dollar.

If China or Japan brings back all the dollars and exchange to their local currencies, it inflates the local currencies, making their exports expensive. So, China & Japan use some of the dollars to buy US debts (Treasury Securities). That’s why the US, a rich country, is in-debt to China which has just 1/5th of the US’ GDP/cap. By holding US debts, China & Japan have to support the dollar.

Since the US’ debt is in its own currency, it can simply print more dollar to pay interests. Other countries have to earn dollars to pay their debts, failing which results in defaults.

In 2011 Obama announced “Pivot to Asia” to stop China’s rise. In 2013 China responded with the Belt and Road Initiatives (BRI) and diverted US debts into BRI projects, to avoid keeping all eggs in one basket. The BRI creates new economies, hence new trade markets for China.

If Asia & Africa develop, the share of the US’ economy shrinks, then Euro could replace dollar as the world’s reserve currency. Then the US would no longer be able to print money freely without a hyperinflation like in Venezuela. And the size of the US economy has to fall back to the fundamentals, which is a lot smaller than the inflated economy. That’s why no country in Eurasia is allowed to catch up with the US’ economy. When Japan was catching up fast on the US in late 80s, it’s knocked down to a 3-decade stagnancy by rising Yen (Plaza Accord). And in the last 30 years, the US created wars and color revolutions in the Middle East, Central Asia & Africa to destabilise Afro-Eurasia, and the World Bank & IMF keep them poor.

As the US prints excessively, other countries’ dollar reserves shrink. Furthermore, to prevent exports to the US becoming expensive, these countries have to print money too, which devalues the savings of the people and causes inflation. It’s estimated that our savings devalue by 6% per year after the abolishment of the gold-backed Bretton Woods system, after which the US prints money based on just the creditability of the dollar.

Free money allows the US to have a big military, and the big military in return, protects the dollar.

The US had no mercy on threats to the dollar:

* In 2000 Saddam Hussein said he would sell oil in Euros not Dollars.
>> Saddam was hanged by the US.

* In 2009 Gaddafi wanted to make Libya export oil in pan-Africa Gold Dinars, not in dollar or Euro.
>> Gaddafi was killed by US & Sarkozy-backed NTC.

* Iran has been trading oil in currencies other than US dollars since 2011.
>> Iran was sanctioned by the US.

* After being sanctioned in 2014, Putin started to trade in non-dollar. By 2019, Putin: (1) completely ditched dollars in oil trades, (2) sold almost all US debts, (3) is now the forerunner in de-dollarization.
>> The US tried to topple Putin by supporting Alexei Navalny, sanctioned Russia, and now the Ukraine war to weaken Russia.

* China: (1) created the BRI, (2) uses non-dollar in oil trades with Iran & Russia, (3) created the CIPS, an alternative to the SWIFT system now weaponised by the US for sanctions, (4) economy and high-tech are catching up fast.
>> The US started a hybrid war against China: Trade war in 2018. Hong Kong color revolution in 2019. Tech blockage (Huawei ban, EUV banned from ASML). Got Australia into a trade war with China in 2020. Created “Uyghur Genocide” & “Forced Labor” propagandas against Xinjiang (XJ), which is the hub of the BRI, to cut off the BRI. Sanctioned goods from XJ to create joblessness and uprising against the gov. After XJ was stabilized by China, the US orchestrated a coup in Kazakhstan in Jan ‘22, located right next to XJ, to cut off the BRI. In Aug ‘22, Pelosi visited Taiwan to provoke a civil war.

If a country supports the dollar, it is looted by the US; if a country doesn’t support the dollar, the gov is changed by the US. This is financial slavery.

The US can’t have direct wars with Russia and China as they are nuclear armed. Proxy wars put the battlefields outside of the US, and also allow the US to disguise as an outsider. In the 1980s, the US supported the Afghan Mujaheddin in a similar proxy war against the USSR.

Russia and China have clear redlines (*Russia: Ukraine a neutral buffer + Ethnic Russian’s safety in Donbas. *China: “One China principle”). The US used its proxies in Kiev and Taipei to step over the redlines to provoke wars, and got its allies to support the wars.

After the Maidan coup by the US in 2014, Ukrainian army began shelling ethnic Russians in Donbas. It subsided after Minsk agreements in 2014/15, but as disclosed by Poroshenko in June ‘22, and by Merkel & Hollande in Dec ‘22, the Minsk were intended to buy time to arm Ukraine against Russia, not to seek peace. The US occupied Afghanistan for 20 years, but it finally left in Aug ‘21, evidently to prepare for the Ukraine project 6 months later. In Sep ‘21 Zelensky visited Biden to get support to join NATO, and shelling in Donbas by Ukrainian forces up 2800% since 16 Feb ‘22 (OSCE data), crossing Putin’s redlines and provoked the war. Pelosi visited Taiwan in Aug ‘22, after which China surrounded Taiwan with battleships.

Historically, the US’ strategy against China-Russia has always been “one at a time” to avoid pushing them together. The move to put Russia forward amidst the on-going hybrid war against China, was due to a major development:

The Fed has issued 80% of all US dollars in market in just 24 months. There was $4 trillion in circulation at the beginning of 2020. The number reached $20 trillion by Oct ‘21, amounting to a 31 trillions debt. Coupled with a global move to diversify into non-dollar reserves fuelled by US sanctions & dollar’s creditability, the US economy and the dollar are in a crisis.

The US proxy war in Ukraine:

1.Strengthened the dollar by weakening Euro. Only twice in history dollar is above Euro, both after a war in Europe: NATO's bombing of Serbia in 1999 (2 months after Euro became the currency of EU) and the Ukraine war. A strong dollar and the Fed’s timely interest rise, created a giant magnet attracting capitals from all over the world into the US.

2.Divided Russia from Europe. As the first NATO chief, Hastings Ismay described NATO’s role: “To keep America IN, to keep Russia OUT, to keep Germany DOWN”. NATO also allows the US to station missiles in Europe, keeping the US safe across the Atlantic.

3.Halted Nord Stream 2, and German firm Energie Baden-Wuerttemberg signed up gas from America Venture Global LNG for 20 years. >the US wrestled from Russia the control of energy to Europe. As George Friedman of US think tank Chicago Council OGA said in 2015:”The US’ primary fear is the combination of German technologies and Russian resources”. And Condoleezza Rice said in 2014:”You (Europe) want to depend more on the North American energy platform, the enormous bounty of oil and gas we’re finding in America, not on pipelines through Ukraine or Russia.”

4.Pushes industries back to the US soil by de-industrializing Europe, as indicated by: (i) The US’ sabotage of N.S. pipelines and US gas sold 4x the price, (ii) The US’ proposed sanction on Algeria after Macron visited Algeria for a gas deal in Aug ‘22, (iii) The foiled sabotage on TurkStream pipeline which feeds Russian gas to Europe via Turkey in Oct ‘22, (iv) The US’ Inflation Reduction Act in Aug ‘22 which pulls capitals from Europe.
Note: The US already bagged TSMC of Taiwan.

5.Created continuity for the Military Industrial Complex after Afghanistan. 

Despite the self-damage, the EU still gives unconditional support to Ukraine. In fact, two European countries (Ukraine and Germany’s N.S.) were attacked in 2022, NATO helped Non-Ally Ukraine, but Ally Germany was ignored. There are 4 other wars going on, e.g. the Yemen war which killed half mil ppl and starving 16 mil. No one cares, because Saudi is an ally, and the war was lobbied by Raytheon. It’s NEVER about justice. Boris Johnson visited Kiev 3 times, to stop Zelensky from peace talk w Russia. Leaders in Europe, the Transatlantics (elites loyal to US), are pinning hopes on Ukraine defeating Russia to say job done to Washington. Zelensky is advertised a hero to get public support.

The US is pushing Europe and Asia into wars. Remember after WW2, Europe and Asia were devastated, but the US emerged from the Great Depression, became the world leader and the dollar became the world’s reserve currency.

The most common swaps guarantee are 1 mth tbills, that's why yield goes up🤔

At the BIS, IMF there are 3 forms of money/reserves. 1. Gold which is manipulated/suppressed/demonetized through the derivates/paper gold markets. 2. SDR's which is a monetary reserve unit made of a basket of currencies of which the dominant currency in the basket is the dollar. 3. U.S. Treasuries – a debt instrument of the u.s. !? How the is that a reserve, lol. Bye bye petrodollar recycling hello tokenized gold on the only iso compliant cryptocurrency – the xlm blockchain. The rest of the world will remonetize gold, the u.s. will be forced to instantly overnight revalue gold from its current $42 price by the fed just as Roosevelt did in the 30's. Fed now in ajuly is the first step to cbdc dollar. Its about to get interesting…

Dollars (worthless) for Yuan (gold backed) is a good deal …why wouldnt you take that deal in a conversion ?!

So basically your saying that if we didn't have biden actively trying to destroy the value of the dollar and just tie it back to gold or something tangible that the us has a lot of like actual oil to dollar ratio we would continue to be the world's reserve curancy. (With the added bonus that our goverment would have spending caps) mmm

Q
Sounds like an abusive marriage
Dollars and sense
Q ❤️

My family has been in international business for more than 50 years.Anyone who thinks the dollar is going anywhere needs their heads examined. The countries pushing a new currency all of them have American dollars in reserves,the Chinese economy would collapse without United States consumers and so would so many other countries. Let's say we remove the reserve purpose, a strong currency still must be backed by strong exports, United States still has very very strong exports, with better quality in military hardware, tools, heavy machinery,planes, medical technology including medicines,foods, autos, computers. In international trades the consumers order the goods from specific countries.

While your argument historically has been true they can either default on any debt to the US because the US makes so little anyway. Or work to destroy the dollar value (Russia and China and Brics) are settling trade now in other currencies. War is expensive. Bullets and aircraft etc have a cost. The cost to destroy the Americans ability to fund war (get supplies and fuel without an SPR) could be just as destructive. The resulting inflation would de value any debt and make dollar repayment easier.

Whenever I hear the "enemies of united states" I cringe so hard.

Dollar will crash

Facts: When African countries decide to unite and side with Russia & China and create a unique currency backed by real commodities. It's over. This is no joke.

Fascinating explanation Joe. Thanks for this one. It's a piece that's missing from most discussions. I still believe that the coming invasion of Taiwan is going to change this dynamic, and it will do so seemingly overnight. After the US declares financial war on 100+ countries in the world who are likely to side with China over Taiwan, they are going to have no choice except to dump the USD and default on their USD debt.

I keep trying to figure out the plan to get the US into asset backed currencies like the rest of the world. I'm still not sure how it is all going to come down, but this video explains much in terms of what is keeping it from being done in an orderly fashion.

Joe, That chart of total private credit demonstrating Chin'a insane debt buildup was very interesting. I hope that you can do a follow up video on that and its implications for China