Will A Cash Rate Hike Crash Housing?

#RBA #InterestRates #HeiseSays
Will A Cash Rate Hike Crash Housing?


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  1. Hi Heise, I am afraid that my children will not be able to afford housing hereafter. I have two concerns – the housing market either crush and affect millions or stagnate like the Japanese housing market. Australian and New Zealand housing market is highly inflated and unheard of, so come down to its true value, and many will regret it.

  2. In my humble little opinion a 1% rate hike will result in a 10% house price fall. And 2% will give us 20%. And so on. The question is what will cause this and when will it happen ?

  3. Will be interesting to see… in earlier times people were more interest savvy… they had buffers (I know I was one) for big hikes. Not 0.25%, but more like 3 – 5%. Given people have forgotten real interest with fake interest over last 10 years (GFC onwards), there is a whole generation who would be less able to recover from interest stress given low experience. I reckon RBA will eventually have to act on their core of controlling inflation. One day they will have to admit inflation has been let off the leash regardless of narrative.

  4. Do Australian know how to spectate on any other asset?
    Does the Australian government offer incentives to speculate in any other asset. (Super will never pay out 50's and under)

  5. I don't think rising interest rates will lower house prices,

    I think rising interest rates, plus decreasing rents, plus the major Chinese slowdown has the potential to slap the market silly.

  6. I can’t believe why so many people keep linking if interest rates go up people will afford to keep their houses so housing won’t correct. Interest rates going up restricts peoples spending and therefore slows demand to buy housing at the same time listings normally lift. Ok there’ll be some forced sales by banks adding to listings but interest rates lifting is more about the realastate industry’s supply and demand for sales. That sets prices. Not harry and sally not selling there house they can afford to keep. I hope they do keep it. But house prices are set on a month to month basis. How many sellers to buyers/ listings to demand. And only a very small percent buy and sell generally out of the total amount of propertys in a given area. My guess would be 2 to 5% max. From around 2012 to 2017 in nz and Im sure Australia demand was through the roof and sellers were about average, demand was really good to start with because after the GFC interest rates were set extremely low and immigration set very high and foreign buyers were massive. Local investors soon past foreign buyers by miles. 2017 to 2019 the market went mostly flat because households debt skyrocketed and property became unaffordable to most and wage growth was stagnant. The special pandemic conditions got the housing market going again . But like all interest rate decreases, debt will max out again shortly. But this time is very different. The pandemic has only pushed household debt to ridiculous risker levels with interest rates only have a upward direction plus inflation is climbing. It would be a absolute miracle if we didn’t see housing corrections around the world because many countries done the exact same things to get their economy’s going after the GFC. What most countries need is massive wage growth to relieve such high debt but that doesn’t seem likely or even fast enough

  7. The cash rate will not crash housing. This is because the banks are already raising interest rates and the cash rate will be the last rate to rise. The recent bank interest rate rises as well as housing loan sizes are a bigger threat since they now have no correlation to the cash rate or realty.

  8. I knew it would happen. Now, it’s the time where everything starts to be interesting for me . I was waiting for this shift in housing burst 💥
    It’s funny now how we start to see on the news talks about interest rate hike, hyperinflation, mortgage stress bla-bla-bla . I am watching, haven’t bought and I know for a fact that something is going to happen, something really bad and it’s not only in Australia. Looks like all my cash set aside is ready to be used in the next years or so, and I will buy your house Heise Says and the houses of all your members too. 😈

  9. So many people have borrowed right up to their limits. People have bought million dollar plus houses in areas they really can't afford, have new cars to keep up with the Jones's. Have done renovations, put their kids into private schools. A decent movement is going to get pretty ugly.

  10. 25% house price crash takes us back to last year's prices. That is very very reasonable. Even a 50% crash takes us back to 2018 prices. Which isn't outrageous.

  11. You can’t listen to the so called experts or analysis because they didn’t even predict the boom we have just had. And i certainly wouldn’t believe anything that comes out the mouths of boomers running the RBA and the government as well.

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